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Crypto’s sharp fall in tandem with the stocks puts into question the narrative of digital assets being an uncorrelated asset. The three-month correlation between Bitcoin, Ether and the major US stock indexes reached between 0.67 and 0.78 last week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Miller Value Partners Chairman Bill Miller in an interview with CNBC said that he had held on to a large portion of his Bitcoin holdings but had to sell some to satisfy margin calls. However, he remains bullish on Bitcoin. He said: "I’ve been through at least three declines of over 80%. I own it as an insurance policy against financial catastrophe. ... I haven’t heard a good argument yet why anybody shouldn’t put at least 1% of their liquid net worth in bitcoin," CoinDesk reported.

The big question worrying investors is whether to buy now or to wait for a further decline before purchasing. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of Bitmex, said in a blog post that “crypto capital markets must be allowed time to heal after the blood letting concludes.” He expects to become a buyer in Bitcoin near $20,000 and Ether at $1,300.

We had mentioned in our previous analysis that bulls will attempt to aggressively defend the zone between $30,000 and $28,800 and that is what happened. Although Bitcoin dipped to $25,338.53 on May 12, the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels.

That started a rebound in the BTC/USD pair which is facing resistance near $31,500. The bears tried to sink the price back below $28,800 on May 16 but the bulls held their ground. The buyers will now make another attempt to push the price to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA).

If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That could increase the possibility of a break below $28,800.

If that happens, the pair may drop to $25,338.53. A break and close below this support could open the doors for a possible drop to $20,000.

This negative view could invalidate in the short term if bulls propel the price above the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest that demand exceeds supply and the pair could then rise to the overhead resistance at $37,000.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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TerraUSD (UST) the algorithmic stablecoin of the Terra blockchain lost its peg to the US dollar and dropped to a low of $0.67 on May 10. Terra’s LUNA token, which is used to back UST has also been in a tailspin plunging more than 52% on May 9.

Analysts fear that if the Luna Foundation Guard, tasked to defend the peg of the UST to USD, is forced to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings, that could create more panic and result in further liquidations.

On-chain market intelligence firm Glassnode highlighted in a recent report that Bitcoin had declined between 77.2% to 85.5% from the all-time high during the bear markets of 2015, 2018 and 2020. Network profitability has also declined to the precapitulation levels seen during 2018, late 2019 bear and March 2020. Glassnode warned that “further downside remains a risk, and would be within the realm of historical cycle performance."

Bitcoin turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on May 5 and plunged below the $37,000 support. This aggravated selling and the BTC/USD pair plummeted to $32,933 as we had projected in our previous analysis.

The sharp fall of the past few days has pulled the relative strength index (RSI) into the oversold zone, indicating that the selling may have been overdone in the short term. This points to a possible consolidation or a relief rally in the near term.

The bulls are likely to defend the zone between $30,000 and $28,800 with all their might but the recovery is likely to face stiff resistance in the zone between $33,670 and $34,886.

If the price turns down from this zone aggressively, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling at higher levels. That could increase the possibility of a break below $28,800. If that happens, the pair may enter a capitulation phase and drop to $25,000 and later to $20,000.

On the upside, the 20-day EMA is the key level to keep an eye on. If the price rises and maintains above this level, it will suggest that bears may be losing their grip. The pair could then rally to $37,000.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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This could be a cause for concern to the crypto investors because some equity analysts anticipate Nasdaq to correct sharply. Veteran trader Peter Brandt tweeted a chart of the Nasdaq 100 index and highlighted similarities between the current chart structure and the one that formed just before the dotcom crash.

The weak performance of cryptocurrencies in 2022 and their tight correlation with US equity markets has resulted in sharp withdrawal from crypto exchange-traded funds.
According to UBS analysis, crypto-ETFs witnessed outflows of $417 million in April, the largest on record.

Google Trends data has shown that worldwide searches for Bitcoin have fallen off the cliff compared to May 2021 readings. This suggests that the retail interest in Bitcoin may be waning.

We had suggested in our previous analysis that bulls will aggressively defend the strong support at $37,000 and that is what happened on April 25. Strong buying at lower levels lead to a sharp recovery in Bitcoin from $38,210.

The BTC/USD pair has reached the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is likely to act as a resistance. If the price turns down sharply from the current level, it will increase the possibility of a drop to $37,000.

This is an important level to watch out for because a break and close below it could intensify selling and the pair may plummet to $32,933.

Contrary to this assumption, if buyers drive the price above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the bullish momentum could pick up and the pair may rally to the overhead resistance zone between $45,855 and $48,240. The bears are likely to mount a strong defence in this zone.

Until Bitcoin breaks above $48,240 or plummets below $32,933, volatile random range-bound action is likely to continue.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 have been clobbered in 2022 as both are down about 15% but in the same period, gold has risen about 10%. This shows that in a high inflation, rising rate environment, investors have shunned assets perceived as risky and are sticking to gold, which is a proven inflation hedge.

Another positive sign has been that Bitcoin balances on the crypto exchanges have continued to decline. Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows that the cumulative balance of Bitcoin at 21 major exchanges has declined to its lowest level since July 2018. This suggests that investors have been withdrawing their Bitcoin to HODL for the long term.

The buyers attempted to push Bitcoin back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on April 13 and 14 but the bears did not relent. This suggests that bears are trying to flip the 50-day SMA into resistance.

The bears tried to extend the correction on April 18 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The recovery is likely to face strong resistance at the moving averages.

The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory suggest that bears have a slight edge.

If the price turns down from the moving averages, the possibility of a drop to $37,000 increases. The buyers are expected to defend this level aggressively.

If the price rebounds off $37,000 with strength, it will suggest that the BTC/USD pair could remain range-bound for a few more days.

If the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 50-day SMA, the short-term momentum may shift in favour of buyers.

The pair could then rally to $44,000 and later to $45,855.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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