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The first half of 2022 has been brutal for both the cryptocurrency and equity markets. Investors fled risky assets as the United States Federal Reserve commenced aggressive monetary tightening to control surging inflation and that stoked fears of a recession.

The S&P 500 plunged 20.6% in the first six months of the year, its worst performance since the first half of 1970. According to Fox Business, Nasdaq recorded its worst-ever performance in the first six months of the year with a drop of 29.5%.

The damage in the crypto markets was even harsher with Bitcoin plunging 56.2% in the second quarter, its sharpest quarterly fall since the 67% fall in the third quarter of 2011. A large part of the losses happened in June when Bitcoin shed 37.3%, its biggest monthly fall since 2011.

In another morale booster to Bitcoin bulls, Deutsche Bank analysts Marion Laboure and Galina Pozdnyakova said in a recent report that Bitcoin could rise to $28,000 by the end of the year. According to the analysts, the crypto markets will be boosted by a strong recovery in the S&P 500 which could rise to its January levels.

Bitcoin plunged below the immediate support at $19,500 but the bulls bought the dip near $18,500. The buyers successfully defended this level from June 30 to July 3 and that started a recovery on July 4.

The bulls will attempt to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it will suggest that the bears may be losing their grip.

The BTC/USD pair could then attempt a rally to the resistance line of the descending channel. A break and close above this level could signal a potential change in trend.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

The bears will then again try to pull the price below $18,500 and challenge the critical support at $17,567.45. If this support cracks, the pair could resume the downtrend. The next support on the downside is $16,000 and then $14,000.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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Fears of a recession, supply chain issues, a China lockdown, and tightening monetary conditions led investors to trim exposure to risky assets last week. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average recorded its firstever eighth-straight weekly loss since 1923. Identically, Bitcoin also made history by closing in the red for the eighth consecutive week.

Although the US equities markets made a strong comeback on May 23, Bitcoin continues to struggle above $30,000. One of the reasons could be that after the collapse of
TerraUSD and LUNA, institutional investors are likely to tread cautiously as the crypto space could come under regulatory scrutiny.

Galaxy Investment Partners CEO Michael Novogratz warned his Twitter followers that in 2018, altcoins had fallen more than 95%. Currently, altcoins are down about
80%. This implies that if history repeats, altcoins could fall another 70% from here. Hence, instead of picking bottoms, Novogratz suggests investors “scale in slowly.”

Bitcoin’s recovery attempts repeatedly turned down from the downtrend line in the past few days. This suggests that bears are defending the level with vigour.

The bears will now attempt to pull the price below the strong support at $28,800. If they manage to do that, it will open the doors for a possible drop to $25,338.53. This is an important level to keep an eye on because if it gives way, the selling could accelerate and the BTC/USD pair could drop to the psychological level of
$20,000.

On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the current level, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating on dips to $28,800. The buyers will then make another attempt to push the pair above the downtrend line.

If they succeed, the pair could rise to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that bears continue to sell at higher levels. The bears will then again try to sink the pair below $28,800.

Alternatively, if bulls thrust the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the downtrend is weakening. The pair will then attempt a rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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- LunaOne

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TerraUSD (UST) the algorithmic stablecoin of the Terra blockchain lost its peg to the US dollar and dropped to a low of $0.67 on May 10. Terra’s LUNA token, which is used to back UST has also been in a tailspin plunging more than 52% on May 9.

Analysts fear that if the Luna Foundation Guard, tasked to defend the peg of the UST to USD, is forced to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings, that could create more panic and result in further liquidations.

On-chain market intelligence firm Glassnode highlighted in a recent report that Bitcoin had declined between 77.2% to 85.5% from the all-time high during the bear markets of 2015, 2018 and 2020. Network profitability has also declined to the precapitulation levels seen during 2018, late 2019 bear and March 2020. Glassnode warned that “further downside remains a risk, and would be within the realm of historical cycle performance."

Bitcoin turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on May 5 and plunged below the $37,000 support. This aggravated selling and the BTC/USD pair plummeted to $32,933 as we had projected in our previous analysis.

The sharp fall of the past few days has pulled the relative strength index (RSI) into the oversold zone, indicating that the selling may have been overdone in the short term. This points to a possible consolidation or a relief rally in the near term.

The bulls are likely to defend the zone between $30,000 and $28,800 with all their might but the recovery is likely to face stiff resistance in the zone between $33,670 and $34,886.

If the price turns down from this zone aggressively, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling at higher levels. That could increase the possibility of a break below $28,800. If that happens, the pair may enter a capitulation phase and drop to $25,000 and later to $20,000.

On the upside, the 20-day EMA is the key level to keep an eye on. If the price rises and maintains above this level, it will suggest that bears may be losing their grip. The pair could then rally to $37,000.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 have been clobbered in 2022 as both are down about 15% but in the same period, gold has risen about 10%. This shows that in a high inflation, rising rate environment, investors have shunned assets perceived as risky and are sticking to gold, which is a proven inflation hedge.

Another positive sign has been that Bitcoin balances on the crypto exchanges have continued to decline. Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows that the cumulative balance of Bitcoin at 21 major exchanges has declined to its lowest level since July 2018. This suggests that investors have been withdrawing their Bitcoin to HODL for the long term.

The buyers attempted to push Bitcoin back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on April 13 and 14 but the bears did not relent. This suggests that bears are trying to flip the 50-day SMA into resistance.

The bears tried to extend the correction on April 18 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The recovery is likely to face strong resistance at the moving averages.

The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory suggest that bears have a slight edge.

If the price turns down from the moving averages, the possibility of a drop to $37,000 increases. The buyers are expected to defend this level aggressively.

If the price rebounds off $37,000 with strength, it will suggest that the BTC/USD pair could remain range-bound for a few more days.

If the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 50-day SMA, the short-term momentum may shift in favour of buyers.

The pair could then rally to $44,000 and later to $45,855.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said in a blog post that the 10-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) remains high. That means if the Nasdaq enters a meltdown, falling 30% to 50%, then the crypto markets are unlikely to be spared. He expects Bitcoin to plummet to $30,000 and Ether to drop to $2,500 by June of this year.

Although the near-term price action favours the bears, whales remain bullish for the long term. At the recently concluded Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood reiterated her call for Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2030. She expects about two and a half percent of institutional assets to be allocated to Bitcoin in the next eight years.

We cautioned traders in our previous analysis that a break below $44,000 could sink Bitcoin to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and that is what happened. The BTC/USD pair turned down sharply on April 6 and reached the 50-day SMA on April 8.

Although the bulls defended the 50-day SMA from April 8 to April 10, the failure to achieve a strong bounce off it attracted further selling by the bears. The pair plunged below the 50-day SMA on April 11 and broke the psychological support at $40,000.

If the price sustains below $40,000, the next stop could be the strong support at $37,000. The buyers are likely to defend this level aggressively. If they succeed, the pair could remain stuck inside a large range between $37,000 and the 200-day SMA for a few days.

Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level, the buyers will try to push the pair above the 50-day SMA. If that happens, it could signal the formation of a higher low, which may be a bullish sign.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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Bitcoin’s strong rally in the past two days has erased the losses for 2022. This has pushed the Crypto Fear and Greed Index into the “greed” territory. Interestingly, just a week back, the index was languishing in the “fear” zone. This shows how a few bullish days could change the investor sentiment quickly.

On-chain analytics firm IntoTheBlock recently tweeted that “the balance held by hodlers - addresses holding >1year, is currently at ath (all-time high). Hodlers increased their positions by 17% since late November. These addresses remained unfazed and accumulated throughout Q1 of 2022.”

Along with increased institutional interest, the purchase by the Luna Foundation may also have boosted sentiment. Do Kwon, the co-founder and chief executive officer of the firm behind the Terra blockchain, said to Bloomberg that it had purchased more than $1 billion in Bitcoin, with the latest purchase of about $135 million done on Monday.

We said in our previous analysis that $45,855 may act as resistance but if bulls push the price above it, the rally could reach the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and that is how it happened.

The long wick on March 28 candlestick shows that bears are attempting to stall the rally at the 200-day SMA. If the price turns down from this level but does not drop below $45,855, it will suggest that the previous resistance has turned into support. This increases the possibility of a break above the 200-day SMA.

If that happens, the BTC/USD pair could start its rally to $52,000 where the bears may again mount a strong defence.

If the price turns down from the 200-day SMA and plummets below $45,855, it will suggest that the short-term traders who may have purchased at lower levels are closing their positions. That could open the doors for a possible drop to $42,500.

If that happens, the pair may remain rangebound between the moving averages for a few days.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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