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TerraUSD (UST) the algorithmic stablecoin of the Terra blockchain lost its peg to the US dollar and dropped to a low of $0.67 on May 10. Terra’s LUNA token, which is used to back UST has also been in a tailspin plunging more than 52% on May 9.

Analysts fear that if the Luna Foundation Guard, tasked to defend the peg of the UST to USD, is forced to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings, that could create more panic and result in further liquidations.

On-chain market intelligence firm Glassnode highlighted in a recent report that Bitcoin had declined between 77.2% to 85.5% from the all-time high during the bear markets of 2015, 2018 and 2020. Network profitability has also declined to the precapitulation levels seen during 2018, late 2019 bear and March 2020. Glassnode warned that “further downside remains a risk, and would be within the realm of historical cycle performance."

Bitcoin turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on May 5 and plunged below the $37,000 support. This aggravated selling and the BTC/USD pair plummeted to $32,933 as we had projected in our previous analysis.

The sharp fall of the past few days has pulled the relative strength index (RSI) into the oversold zone, indicating that the selling may have been overdone in the short term. This points to a possible consolidation or a relief rally in the near term.

The bulls are likely to defend the zone between $30,000 and $28,800 with all their might but the recovery is likely to face stiff resistance in the zone between $33,670 and $34,886.

If the price turns down from this zone aggressively, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling at higher levels. That could increase the possibility of a break below $28,800. If that happens, the pair may enter a capitulation phase and drop to $25,000 and later to $20,000.

On the upside, the 20-day EMA is the key level to keep an eye on. If the price rises and maintains above this level, it will suggest that bears may be losing their grip. The pair could then rally to $37,000.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Bitcoin ended April on a sombre note with a decline of more than 17%. Bitcoin was not the only asset class that faced drubbing in April, the Nasdaq Composite plunged
13.3% recording its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The S&P 500 had its worst performance since March 2020 as it fell 8.8%.

During Berkshire Hathway’s annual shareholders’ meeting, Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger doubled down on their criticism of Bitcoin. Buffet said he would not buy all the Bitcoin in the world even if it was offered to him for $25 because according to him, it does not “produce anything” unlike rental property or farmland. Munger went a step ahead and said that Bitcoin is “still likely to go to zero.”

We had suggested in our previous analysis that the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) will act as a resistance and that is what happened. Bitcoin turned down from the 20-day EMA on April 28 and dropped near the strong support at $37,000 on May 1.

The bulls bought the dip but the recovery continues to face selling near the 20-day EMA. If bulls fail to clear this hurdle quickly, the possibility of a drop below $37,000 increases. If that happens, the selling could pick up momentum and the BTC/USD pair could plummet to $34,322 and later to $32,933.

While the downsloping 20-day EMA signals advantage to bears, the positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests that the bearish momentum may be losing steam.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair could rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) where the bears may again pose a stiff challenge. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to indicate that the selling pressure has reduced.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 have been clobbered in 2022 as both are down about 15% but in the same period, gold has risen about 10%. This shows that in a high inflation, rising rate environment, investors have shunned assets perceived as risky and are sticking to gold, which is a proven inflation hedge.

Another positive sign has been that Bitcoin balances on the crypto exchanges have continued to decline. Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows that the cumulative balance of Bitcoin at 21 major exchanges has declined to its lowest level since July 2018. This suggests that investors have been withdrawing their Bitcoin to HODL for the long term.

The buyers attempted to push Bitcoin back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on April 13 and 14 but the bears did not relent. This suggests that bears are trying to flip the 50-day SMA into resistance.

The bears tried to extend the correction on April 18 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The recovery is likely to face strong resistance at the moving averages.

The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory suggest that bears have a slight edge.

If the price turns down from the moving averages, the possibility of a drop to $37,000 increases. The buyers are expected to defend this level aggressively.

If the price rebounds off $37,000 with strength, it will suggest that the BTC/USD pair could remain range-bound for a few more days.

If the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 50-day SMA, the short-term momentum may shift in favour of buyers.

The pair could then rally to $44,000 and later to $45,855.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said in a blog post that the 10-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) remains high. That means if the Nasdaq enters a meltdown, falling 30% to 50%, then the crypto markets are unlikely to be spared. He expects Bitcoin to plummet to $30,000 and Ether to drop to $2,500 by June of this year.

Although the near-term price action favours the bears, whales remain bullish for the long term. At the recently concluded Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood reiterated her call for Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2030. She expects about two and a half percent of institutional assets to be allocated to Bitcoin in the next eight years.

We cautioned traders in our previous analysis that a break below $44,000 could sink Bitcoin to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and that is what happened. The BTC/USD pair turned down sharply on April 6 and reached the 50-day SMA on April 8.

Although the bulls defended the 50-day SMA from April 8 to April 10, the failure to achieve a strong bounce off it attracted further selling by the bears. The pair plunged below the 50-day SMA on April 11 and broke the psychological support at $40,000.

If the price sustains below $40,000, the next stop could be the strong support at $37,000. The buyers are likely to defend this level aggressively. If they succeed, the pair could remain stuck inside a large range between $37,000 and the 200-day SMA for a few days.

Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level, the buyers will try to push the pair above the 50-day SMA. If that happens, it could signal the formation of a higher low, which may be a bullish sign.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Another milestone of importance was that the 19th millionth Bitcoin was mined on April 1, leaving only 2 million more Bitcoin to be mined. It is expected that the last Bitcoin will be mined in the year 2140. This is likely to shift investors’ focus on the scarcity of the leading cryptocurrency.

While Bitcoin remains the leading cryptocurrency, some analysts are projecting greater value in Ether. Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO, recently highlighted in a
blog post that Ether’s upgrade to proof-of-stake could increase its institutional appeal as it will act as an infinite duration bond. This makes Hayes more bullish on Ether than Bitcoin. He expects Ether to rally above $10,000 by the end of the year.

“My crypto portfolio at the beginning of 2022 was 50% Bitcoin and 50% Ether. I have conviction in the cheapness of ETH relative to the rest of the crypto firmament. Therefore, my target allocation is 25% Bitcoin and 75% Ether”, Hayes added.

Bitcoin turned down from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 29, indicating that bears continue to defend the level aggressively.

The sellers tried to sink and sustain the price below the breakout level of $45,855 but the bulls had other plans. They purchased the dip on April 1 as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

The buyers have managed to keep the BTC/ USD pair above the critical level of $45,855 but have not been able to push the price above the 200-day SMA. This indicates that the pair may spend some more time inside a tight range between $44,250 and $48,250.

Contrary to this assumption, if buyers propel the price above the 200-day SMA, the upmove could resume. The pair could then rally to $52,100 where the bears are expected to mount a strong defence. Aggressive traders may consider long positions on a close above the 200-day SMA.

On the downside, a break and close below $44,000 could attract profit-booking by the short-term traders. That may pull the price to the 50-day SMA.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Bitcoin’s strong rally in the past two days has erased the losses for 2022. This has pushed the Crypto Fear and Greed Index into the “greed” territory. Interestingly, just a week back, the index was languishing in the “fear” zone. This shows how a few bullish days could change the investor sentiment quickly.

On-chain analytics firm IntoTheBlock recently tweeted that “the balance held by hodlers - addresses holding >1year, is currently at ath (all-time high). Hodlers increased their positions by 17% since late November. These addresses remained unfazed and accumulated throughout Q1 of 2022.”

Along with increased institutional interest, the purchase by the Luna Foundation may also have boosted sentiment. Do Kwon, the co-founder and chief executive officer of the firm behind the Terra blockchain, said to Bloomberg that it had purchased more than $1 billion in Bitcoin, with the latest purchase of about $135 million done on Monday.

We said in our previous analysis that $45,855 may act as resistance but if bulls push the price above it, the rally could reach the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and that is how it happened.

The long wick on March 28 candlestick shows that bears are attempting to stall the rally at the 200-day SMA. If the price turns down from this level but does not drop below $45,855, it will suggest that the previous resistance has turned into support. This increases the possibility of a break above the 200-day SMA.

If that happens, the BTC/USD pair could start its rally to $52,000 where the bears may again mount a strong defence.

If the price turns down from the 200-day SMA and plummets below $45,855, it will suggest that the short-term traders who may have purchased at lower levels are closing their positions. That could open the doors for a possible drop to $42,500.

If that happens, the pair may remain rangebound between the moving averages for a few days.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Institutional interest is also showing signs of a pick up in the crypto space. Coindesk said its sources revealed that Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, is planning to invest in a crypto fund. However, the crypto investment, when compared to Bridgewater’s assets under management, is very small.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in a recent interview with Bloomberg that Bitcoin is unlikely to rally in the current environment, with the Fed tightening and the war in Ukraine. However, Novogratz remains bullish in the long term. He said that Bitcoin should reach $500,000 in five years, else his theory of the Bitcoin
adoption cycle would prove to be wrong.

We said in our previous analysis that traders may turn positive on a break above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and that proved to be the right strategy to adopt. Bitcoin broke and closed above the downtrend line of the descending triangle on March 16, which invalidated the bearish setup.

Although the bears tried to pull the price back below the 50-day SMA, the bulls held their ground, indicating buying on dips. The relative strength index (RSI) has jumped into the positive territory, suggesting that bulls have the upper hand.

Strong buying today has pushed the price above the minor resistance at $42,600. If bulls sustain the price above this level, the BTC/USD pair could rally to $45,855. This level is again likely to act as a stiff resistance.

If the price turns down from this resistance, the bears will attempt to pull the pair to the 50-day SMA and extend the stay inside the range for a few more days. Conversely, a rally above $45,855 could propel the pair to the 200-day SMA.

The bullish view will invalidate in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-day SMA.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Without a major trigger, Bitcoin prices have been range-bound in 2022. While long-term investors seem to be accumulating on dips, the short-term traders who have
purchased at higher levels may be liquidating their positions on rallies near $47,000 to “get their initial investment back,” said Brett Munster at Blockforce Capital.

During this period of uncertainty and high inflation, Tesla CEO Elon Musk advised his followers to “own physical things like a home or stock in companies you think make good products, than dollars when inflation is high.” Musk added that he owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin and does not plan to sell his crypto holdings.

Although a Bitcoin rally to $100,000 seems like a distant dream at current levels, several investors remain bullish for the long term. Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak while speaking on the podcast "Steve-O's Wild Ride," said he expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 due to the high interest in crypto.

Bitcoin has formed a descending triangle pattern which will complete on a break and close below $37,020. The BTC/USD pair could then decline to the strong support zone of $34,322 and $32,933.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off $37,020, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating near this support. The buyers will then attempt to push and sustain the price above the downtrend line and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

Such a move will invalidate the bearish setup, which could attract buyers. The pair could then start its northward march toward the overhead resistance at $45,500 where the bears are expected to mount a strong defence.

The flat moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) near 47 point to a possible range-bound action in the short term.

Traders may wait for the price to break and close above the 50-day SMA before turning positive. Bottom fishing may be avoided if the price sustains below $37,000.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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