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Bitcoin soared above $22,000 and Ether above $1,500 on July 18, raising hopes that the worst may be over for the cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin’s recovery started on July 13 even as the United States inflation in the month of June hit a 40-year high of 9.1%, much higher than economist expectations of 8.8%, according to Refinitiv.

The recovery in Bitcoin and Ether on July 18 pushed the total crypto market capitalization above $1 trillion for the first time since June 13, according to coinmarketcap data.

Does the recovery mark the end of the bear phase in Bitcoin? Market intelligence firm Glassnode believes that a “genuine bottom formation could be underway” but more sideways action is likely in the next few weeks.

We had projected in our previous analysis that if Bitcoin rebounds off the support line, it could reach the resistance line of the ascending channel and that is what happened.

The price has turned down from the resistance line, indicating that bears are active at higher levels. If the price rebounds off the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), the bulls will make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle.

If they succeed, the BTC/USD pair could pick up momentum and rally toward the pattern target of $26,500. If this level is crossed, the up-move could reach $32,000.

On the other hand, if the price slips below the 20-day EMA, the pair could drop to the support line of the channel. A bounce off this level will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the channel for a few more days.

The flattish 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint also suggest a range-bound action in the near term.

The bears will have to sink the price below the channel to gain the upper hand. That could open the doors for a retest of the June 18 intraday low of $17,567.45.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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- DDC

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Expectations of an aggressive monetary tightening by the United States have sent the US dollar index (DXY) soaring to a 20-year high above 108. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives trading platform BitMEX, tweeted on July 11 that the parity between the US dollar and the euro could force the central banks to resort to yield curve control. That could lead to the disintegration of the currency and trigger a massive rally in Bitcoin. Hayes asked his followers to “be patient” as this could take time.

Several analysts believe that Bitcoin will turn around after the Federal Reserve reverses its monetary tightening. And for that to happen, inflation needs to come down. There is a silver lining for the long-term investors as the inflation expectation for the three-year ahead period fell to 3.6% in June from 3.9% a month
earlier, according to the New York Fed’s June Survey of Consumer Expectations published on July 11.

Bitcoin rallied above the 20-day exponential moving average on July 7 but the bulls could not build upon this advantage. The bears sold near $22,500 on July 8 and pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA on July 10.

The BTC/USD pair is trading inside an ascending channel pattern. The bears will now attempt to pull the price to the support line, which is likely to attract buyers.

If the price rebounds off the support line, the pair could rise to the 20-day EMA and then to the resistance line of the channel. The 20-day EMA is flat but the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory indicates a minor advantage to sellers.

If the price breaks below the channel, the bears will try to pull the pair to the strong support zone of $18,603 to $17,567.45. This remains an important zone to keep an eye on because if it cracks, the selling could intensify. The pair could then plummet to $16,000 and later to $14,000.

The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) to indicate a potential trend change.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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The first half of 2022 has been brutal for both the cryptocurrency and equity markets. Investors fled risky assets as the United States Federal Reserve commenced aggressive monetary tightening to control surging inflation and that stoked fears of a recession.

The S&P 500 plunged 20.6% in the first six months of the year, its worst performance since the first half of 1970. According to Fox Business, Nasdaq recorded its worst-ever performance in the first six months of the year with a drop of 29.5%.

The damage in the crypto markets was even harsher with Bitcoin plunging 56.2% in the second quarter, its sharpest quarterly fall since the 67% fall in the third quarter of 2011. A large part of the losses happened in June when Bitcoin shed 37.3%, its biggest monthly fall since 2011.

In another morale booster to Bitcoin bulls, Deutsche Bank analysts Marion Laboure and Galina Pozdnyakova said in a recent report that Bitcoin could rise to $28,000 by the end of the year. According to the analysts, the crypto markets will be boosted by a strong recovery in the S&P 500 which could rise to its January levels.

Bitcoin plunged below the immediate support at $19,500 but the bulls bought the dip near $18,500. The buyers successfully defended this level from June 30 to July 3 and that started a recovery on July 4.

The bulls will attempt to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it will suggest that the bears may be losing their grip.

The BTC/USD pair could then attempt a rally to the resistance line of the descending channel. A break and close above this level could signal a potential change in trend.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

The bears will then again try to pull the price below $18,500 and challenge the critical support at $17,567.45. If this support cracks, the pair could resume the downtrend. The next support on the downside is $16,000 and then $14,000.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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Bitcoin dropped to $17,567 on June 18, its lowest level since November 2020. The drop below $20,000 was the first occasion in Bitcoin’s short history that it breached the all-time high made during the previous bull market cycle. Traders fear that if Bitcoin starts to trade below $20,000, it could lead to margin calls and forced liquidations. Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, expects Bitcoin to drop to $10,000.

Some institutional investors seem to be dumping their positions in a hurry. Canada's Purpose Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (BTCC) and 3iQ CoinShares Bitcoin ETF,
have both witnessed massive liquidations in the past few days. BTCC’s holdings plunged from 47,818 Bitcoin to 23,307 Bitcoin between June 16 and June 17 while 3iQ’s stash reduced from 23,917 Bitcoin on June 1 to 12,668 Bitcoin on June 17.

We expected bulls to defend the $20,000 support but the bears had other plans. They pulled the price to $17,567 on June 18 but could not sustain the lower levels. This
suggests strong buying on dips. The BTC/USD pair rose back above $20,000 on June 19 but the buyers are struggling to build upon this recovery.

If the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that bears have flipped the $20,000 level into resistance. That could increase the possibility of a drop to $17,567. If this level cracks, the next stop could be the support line of the descending channel near $16,000.

Conversely, if buyers sustain the price above $20,000, the pair could rally to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). This is an important level to watch out for.

If the price turns down from this level but rebounds off $20,000, it will suggest that buyers are attempting to form a higher low.

The bulls will then attempt to push the price toward the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). A break and close above this resistance could indicate a potential change in trend.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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