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Risky assets made a strong comeback last week. The United States equities markets rallied more than 5.4% and the crypto markets saw strong gains in select altcoins.
Although Bitcoin sustained above the psychological level of $20,000, the gains have been muted. This shows that the investors remain cautious and are not convinced that a bottom has been formed.

Institutional investors continue to withdraw funds from digital assets, according to the latest CoinShares’ weekly “Digital Asset Fund Flows” report. Digital investment products saw the largest outflows of $423 million, mainly due to outflows from the Canadian exchanges on June 17.

The recovery in Bitcoin’s price could be a long-drawn affair, according to Binance founder and chief executive Changpeng Zhao. In an interview with The Guardian,
Zhao said that it could “take a few months or a couple of years” before Bitcoin reaches its all-time high but added that “no one can predict the future.”

Bitcoin’s recovery could not rise above $22,000 and reach the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels and bears
continue to sell on minor rallies.

Both moving averages are sloping down and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative territory, indicating advantage to bears.

The critical level to watch on the downside is $19,500. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, it will suggest that bulls are attempting to form a higher low. The buyers will then make one more attempt to push the price above the 20-day EMA.

If they succeed, the BTC/USD pair could rally to the resistance line of the descending channel.

On the other hand, if bears sink the price below $19,500, the pair could retest the June 18 intraday low of $17,567.45. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $16,000 and next to $14,000.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Bitcoin dropped to $17,567 on June 18, its lowest level since November 2020. The drop below $20,000 was the first occasion in Bitcoin’s short history that it breached the all-time high made during the previous bull market cycle. Traders fear that if Bitcoin starts to trade below $20,000, it could lead to margin calls and forced liquidations. Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, expects Bitcoin to drop to $10,000.

Some institutional investors seem to be dumping their positions in a hurry. Canada's Purpose Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (BTCC) and 3iQ CoinShares Bitcoin ETF,
have both witnessed massive liquidations in the past few days. BTCC’s holdings plunged from 47,818 Bitcoin to 23,307 Bitcoin between June 16 and June 17 while 3iQ’s stash reduced from 23,917 Bitcoin on June 1 to 12,668 Bitcoin on June 17.

We expected bulls to defend the $20,000 support but the bears had other plans. They pulled the price to $17,567 on June 18 but could not sustain the lower levels. This
suggests strong buying on dips. The BTC/USD pair rose back above $20,000 on June 19 but the buyers are struggling to build upon this recovery.

If the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that bears have flipped the $20,000 level into resistance. That could increase the possibility of a drop to $17,567. If this level cracks, the next stop could be the support line of the descending channel near $16,000.

Conversely, if buyers sustain the price above $20,000, the pair could rally to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). This is an important level to watch out for.

If the price turns down from this level but rebounds off $20,000, it will suggest that buyers are attempting to form a higher low.

The bulls will then attempt to push the price toward the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). A break and close above this resistance could indicate a potential change in trend.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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The selling picked up momentum after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on June 10 that the consumer price index soared 8.6% for the 12 months ending May, the largest annual increase since December 1981. The sell-off in the equity markets continued on June 13 and the S&P 500 fell into the bear market territory.

After the fall in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy’s stash of 129,219 Bitcoins purchased at $3.97 billion is valued at $2.82 billion and Tesla’s Bitcoin holding acquired at $1.5 billion is valued at $945 million, according to Bitcoin Treasuries. Talks of MicroStrategy facing margin calls below $21,000 have been doing rounds but the firm’s CEO Michael Saylor previously said that Bitcoin will have to drop below $3,500 before it becomes a problem.

We had suggested in our previous analysis that if Bitcoin plummets below $25,338, it could drop to $20,000. That is what happened and Bitcoin dropped to $20,816.40 on June 14. The bulls are expected to defend the $20,000 support with all their might.

The sharp fall of the past few days has sent the relative strength index deep into the oversold territory. This suggests that the selling may have been overdone in the short term and a relief rally is likely.

If the price rebounds off the current level, the BTC/USD pair could rise to $25,338 and then to $28,800. The bears will try to flip this zone into resistance. If they do that, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

The bears will then again attempt to resume the downtrend. A break below $20,000 could open the doors for a possible decline to $15,000 but we give it a low possibility of occurring.

On the upside, the bulls will have to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) to indicate that the sellers may be losing their grip. A potential trend change will be signalled if bulls push the pair above $32,646.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Bitcoin rose marginally last week, snapping its longest streak of nine negative weekly closes. The bulls attempted to build upon this strength in the new week and put in a bottom but the bears are in no mood to let go of their advantage.

Although Bitcoin has remained under pressure in 2022, institutional investors have continued to accumulate the dips. This suggests they remain bullish in the long term. CoinShares’ latest Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report shows that year-to-date, the total institutional inflows into Bitcoin have crossed the half a billion-dollar mark.

Does the sustained demand from institutional investors suggest that Bitcoin may have bottomed out or the downside is limited? According to Arthur Hayes, former CEO of
BitMEX, Bitcoin’s previous halving cycles suggest that Bitcoin may bottom out in the range of $25,000 to $27,000 and Ether may find a bottom between $1,700 and $1,800.

We had suggested in our previous analysis that Bitcoin may remain stuck in a range in the short term and that is how it has been. The BTC/USD pair has been trading between $28,800 and $32,646 for the past few days.

The bulls tried to propel the price above $32,646 on May 31 but the bears held their ground. That may have attracted profit-booking by short-term traders, which pulled the price back below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on June 1.

Buyers again pushed the price above the 20-day EMA on June 6 but could not sustain the higher levels. This suggests that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on minor rallies. The bears will now attempt to sink the price below the strong support of $28,800. If they manage to do that, the pair could drop to the May 12 intraday low of $25,338.

This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if it cracks, the selling may accelerate and the pair could plunge to $20,000.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above $32,646. Such a move will increase the likelihood that a bottom may be in place. The pair could then attempt a rally to $37,000.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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