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Bitcoin and several major cryptocurrencies have been stuck in listless sideways price action for the past several weeks. There is a silver lining in this rangebound action because Bitcoin has not broken below its June low even though the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit new year-to-date lows last week. This is a sign that the weakness in the United States equities markets has not caused a capitulation in Bitcoin.

The US consumer price index rose 0.4% in September, more than the Dow Jones estimate of a 0.3% rise. That caused a sharp sell-off in risky assets on October 13 on fears that the Federal Reserve will have to continue with its gigantic rate hikes to curb inflation. CME’s FedWatchTool shows a 98.9% probability of a 0.75% rate hike in November and a 66.4% probability of another 0.75% rate hike in December of this year.

We mentioned in our previous analysis that buyers are expected to aggressively defend the zone between $18,600 and $18,153 and that is what happened. Bitcoin plummeted to $18,131 on October 13 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels.

Both moving averages have flattened out and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The price has been stuck in a range between $18,150 and $20,500.

The recovery has reached the moving averages which may act as resistance but if bulls push the price above it, the next stop could be $20,500.

This is an important level to keep an eye on because if bulls clear this hurdle, the BTC/USD pair could pick up momentum and soar to $22,800. The bears are again expected to defend this level with vigor.

On the downside, the bears need to break the strong support zone between $18,150 to $17,567 to start the next leg of the downtrend.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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Risky assets started the month of October on a strong note but the upward march halted after the September nonfarm payroll numbers showed that the job market remained strong. The nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 for the month, a tad lower than the Dow Jones estimate of 275,000, but the unemployment rate fell 3.5%, topping forecasts of 3.7%. This stoked fears of another large rate hike by the Federal Reserve in its November meeting. CME’s FedWatch Tool shows a 78.4% probability of a 75 basis point rate hike in November, up from 59.5% a week before.

The United States equities markets plunged after the CPI print on October 7 and the selling continued at the start of the new week on October 10. This sent the Nasdaq Composite tumbling to its lowest close since July 2020. The next major trigger for the markets could be the September consumer price index data due on October 13.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones anticipate the CPI to increase by 8.1% annually and 0.3% monthly. We expect volatility to soar following the release of the CPI numbers.

We had highlighted in our previous analysis that $20,500 was the first major hurdle for the bulls and that is where the recovery halted last week. Buyers tried to clear this hurdle between October 4-6 but the bears did not budge.

The BTC/USD pair turned down and broke below the 20-day exponential moving average on October 7. The selling has continued and the pair could next decline to the strong support zone between $18,600 to $18,153.

Buyers are expected to aggressively defend this zone.

If the price rebounds off this zone, the bulls will make one more attempt to push the pair to the overhead resistance at $20,500. If they succeed, the pair could climb to $22,800.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower and breaks below the support zone, the pair could retest the June low of $17,567.45. A break and close below this level could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

The next support on the downside is at $16,200.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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Although cryptocurrencies have been closely correlated with the US equities markets for a large part of 2022, Bitcoin showed the first signs of decoupling in September. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization fell only about 3% in September, indicating that lower levels may have attracted accumulation from long-term investors.

The bullish bias of the cryptocurrency traders may be due to Bitcoin’s historically strong performance in October. According to coinglass data, Bitcoin has closed October in the red only on two occasions, in 2014 and 2018. Hence, cryptocurrency enthusiasts popularly call the month as “Uptober.”

Robert Kiyosaki, businessman and best-selling author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, said in a tweet on October 2 that Bitcoin, gold and silver prices may go down if the Federal Reserve continues to increase interest rates as that would cause the US dollar to strengthen. He called this a buying opportunity because when the “Fed pivots and drops interest rates as England just did you will smile while others cry.”

We had projected in the previous analysis that Bitcoin is likely to face resistance at the 50-day simple moving average and that is what happened.

Bitcoin climbed above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on September 27 and again on September 30 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels as seen from the long wick on the candlesticks.

The first major hurdle for the bulls to cross on the upside is $20,500. If they manage to do that, the bullish momentum could pick up and the BTC/USD pair could rally to the next stiff resistance of $22,800.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance, the bears will again try to sink the pair below $18,600. If they succeed, the pair could drop to the June low of $17,567.45. The bears will have to pull the price below this vital support to signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend.

The flattish 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. It points to a possible range-bound action between $18,600 and $20,500 for the next few days.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

Enjoy the issue!

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- indu4.0

- Gauss

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