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The selling picked up momentum after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on June 10 that the consumer price index soared 8.6% for the 12 months ending May, the largest annual increase since December 1981. The sell-off in the equity markets continued on June 13 and the S&P 500 fell into the bear market territory.

After the fall in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy’s stash of 129,219 Bitcoins purchased at $3.97 billion is valued at $2.82 billion and Tesla’s Bitcoin holding acquired at $1.5 billion is valued at $945 million, according to Bitcoin Treasuries. Talks of MicroStrategy facing margin calls below $21,000 have been doing rounds but the firm’s CEO Michael Saylor previously said that Bitcoin will have to drop below $3,500 before it becomes a problem.

We had suggested in our previous analysis that if Bitcoin plummets below $25,338, it could drop to $20,000. That is what happened and Bitcoin dropped to $20,816.40 on June 14. The bulls are expected to defend the $20,000 support with all their might.

The sharp fall of the past few days has sent the relative strength index deep into the oversold territory. This suggests that the selling may have been overdone in the short term and a relief rally is likely.

If the price rebounds off the current level, the BTC/USD pair could rise to $25,338 and then to $28,800. The bears will try to flip this zone into resistance. If they do that, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

The bears will then again attempt to resume the downtrend. A break below $20,000 could open the doors for a possible decline to $15,000 but we give it a low possibility of occurring.

On the upside, the bulls will have to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) to indicate that the sellers may be losing their grip. A potential trend change will be signalled if bulls push the pair above $32,646.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Fears of a recession, supply chain issues, a China lockdown, and tightening monetary conditions led investors to trim exposure to risky assets last week. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average recorded its firstever eighth-straight weekly loss since 1923. Identically, Bitcoin also made history by closing in the red for the eighth consecutive week.

Although the US equities markets made a strong comeback on May 23, Bitcoin continues to struggle above $30,000. One of the reasons could be that after the collapse of
TerraUSD and LUNA, institutional investors are likely to tread cautiously as the crypto space could come under regulatory scrutiny.

Galaxy Investment Partners CEO Michael Novogratz warned his Twitter followers that in 2018, altcoins had fallen more than 95%. Currently, altcoins are down about
80%. This implies that if history repeats, altcoins could fall another 70% from here. Hence, instead of picking bottoms, Novogratz suggests investors “scale in slowly.”

Bitcoin’s recovery attempts repeatedly turned down from the downtrend line in the past few days. This suggests that bears are defending the level with vigour.

The bears will now attempt to pull the price below the strong support at $28,800. If they manage to do that, it will open the doors for a possible drop to $25,338.53. This is an important level to keep an eye on because if it gives way, the selling could accelerate and the BTC/USD pair could drop to the psychological level of
$20,000.

On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the current level, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating on dips to $28,800. The buyers will then make another attempt to push the pair above the downtrend line.

If they succeed, the pair could rise to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that bears continue to sell at higher levels. The bears will then again try to sink the pair below $28,800.

Alternatively, if bulls thrust the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the downtrend is weakening. The pair will then attempt a rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Crypto’s sharp fall in tandem with the stocks puts into question the narrative of digital assets being an uncorrelated asset. The three-month correlation between Bitcoin, Ether and the major US stock indexes reached between 0.67 and 0.78 last week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Miller Value Partners Chairman Bill Miller in an interview with CNBC said that he had held on to a large portion of his Bitcoin holdings but had to sell some to satisfy margin calls. However, he remains bullish on Bitcoin. He said: "I’ve been through at least three declines of over 80%. I own it as an insurance policy against financial catastrophe. ... I haven’t heard a good argument yet why anybody shouldn’t put at least 1% of their liquid net worth in bitcoin," CoinDesk reported.

The big question worrying investors is whether to buy now or to wait for a further decline before purchasing. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of Bitmex, said in a blog post that “crypto capital markets must be allowed time to heal after the blood letting concludes.” He expects to become a buyer in Bitcoin near $20,000 and Ether at $1,300.

We had mentioned in our previous analysis that bulls will attempt to aggressively defend the zone between $30,000 and $28,800 and that is what happened. Although Bitcoin dipped to $25,338.53 on May 12, the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels.

That started a rebound in the BTC/USD pair which is facing resistance near $31,500. The bears tried to sink the price back below $28,800 on May 16 but the bulls held their ground. The buyers will now make another attempt to push the price to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA).

If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That could increase the possibility of a break below $28,800.

If that happens, the pair may drop to $25,338.53. A break and close below this support could open the doors for a possible drop to $20,000.

This negative view could invalidate in the short term if bulls propel the price above the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest that demand exceeds supply and the pair could then rise to the overhead resistance at $37,000.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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TerraUSD (UST) the algorithmic stablecoin of the Terra blockchain lost its peg to the US dollar and dropped to a low of $0.67 on May 10. Terra’s LUNA token, which is used to back UST has also been in a tailspin plunging more than 52% on May 9.

Analysts fear that if the Luna Foundation Guard, tasked to defend the peg of the UST to USD, is forced to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings, that could create more panic and result in further liquidations.

On-chain market intelligence firm Glassnode highlighted in a recent report that Bitcoin had declined between 77.2% to 85.5% from the all-time high during the bear markets of 2015, 2018 and 2020. Network profitability has also declined to the precapitulation levels seen during 2018, late 2019 bear and March 2020. Glassnode warned that “further downside remains a risk, and would be within the realm of historical cycle performance."

Bitcoin turned down from the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on May 5 and plunged below the $37,000 support. This aggravated selling and the BTC/USD pair plummeted to $32,933 as we had projected in our previous analysis.

The sharp fall of the past few days has pulled the relative strength index (RSI) into the oversold zone, indicating that the selling may have been overdone in the short term. This points to a possible consolidation or a relief rally in the near term.

The bulls are likely to defend the zone between $30,000 and $28,800 with all their might but the recovery is likely to face stiff resistance in the zone between $33,670 and $34,886.

If the price turns down from this zone aggressively, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling at higher levels. That could increase the possibility of a break below $28,800. If that happens, the pair may enter a capitulation phase and drop to $25,000 and later to $20,000.

On the upside, the 20-day EMA is the key level to keep an eye on. If the price rises and maintains above this level, it will suggest that bears may be losing their grip. The pair could then rally to $37,000.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Bitcoin ended April on a sombre note with a decline of more than 17%. Bitcoin was not the only asset class that faced drubbing in April, the Nasdaq Composite plunged
13.3% recording its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The S&P 500 had its worst performance since March 2020 as it fell 8.8%.

During Berkshire Hathway’s annual shareholders’ meeting, Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger doubled down on their criticism of Bitcoin. Buffet said he would not buy all the Bitcoin in the world even if it was offered to him for $25 because according to him, it does not “produce anything” unlike rental property or farmland. Munger went a step ahead and said that Bitcoin is “still likely to go to zero.”

We had suggested in our previous analysis that the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) will act as a resistance and that is what happened. Bitcoin turned down from the 20-day EMA on April 28 and dropped near the strong support at $37,000 on May 1.

The bulls bought the dip but the recovery continues to face selling near the 20-day EMA. If bulls fail to clear this hurdle quickly, the possibility of a drop below $37,000 increases. If that happens, the selling could pick up momentum and the BTC/USD pair could plummet to $34,322 and later to $32,933.

While the downsloping 20-day EMA signals advantage to bears, the positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests that the bearish momentum may be losing steam.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair could rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) where the bears may again pose a stiff challenge. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to indicate that the selling pressure has reduced.

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Enjoy the issue!

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