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Although cryptocurrencies have been closely correlated with the US equities markets for a large part of 2022, Bitcoin showed the first signs of decoupling in September. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization fell only about 3% in September, indicating that lower levels may have attracted accumulation from long-term investors.

The bullish bias of the cryptocurrency traders may be due to Bitcoin’s historically strong performance in October. According to coinglass data, Bitcoin has closed October in the red only on two occasions, in 2014 and 2018. Hence, cryptocurrency enthusiasts popularly call the month as “Uptober.”

Robert Kiyosaki, businessman and best-selling author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, said in a tweet on October 2 that Bitcoin, gold and silver prices may go down if the Federal Reserve continues to increase interest rates as that would cause the US dollar to strengthen. He called this a buying opportunity because when the “Fed pivots and drops interest rates as England just did you will smile while others cry.”

We had projected in the previous analysis that Bitcoin is likely to face resistance at the 50-day simple moving average and that is what happened.

Bitcoin climbed above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on September 27 and again on September 30 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels as seen from the long wick on the candlesticks.

The first major hurdle for the bulls to cross on the upside is $20,500. If they manage to do that, the bullish momentum could pick up and the BTC/USD pair could rally to the next stiff resistance of $22,800.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance, the bears will again try to sink the pair below $18,600. If they succeed, the pair could drop to the June low of $17,567.45. The bears will have to pull the price below this vital support to signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend.

The flattish 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. It points to a possible range-bound action between $18,600 and $20,500 for the next few days.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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The United States dollar index (DXY) which has been in a strong uptrend for the past several weeks is showing signs of topping out. This bodes well for risky assets as they move in inverse correlation to the DXY. Investors seem to believe that inflation may have peaked and the Federal Reserve may slow down its aggressive pace of rate hikes after the September meeting.

Credit Suisse chief US equity strategist Jonathan Golub said while speaking to CNBC that inflation is likely to “collapse” over the next 12 to 18 months. Reduced gas prices at the gas station and a decline in food prices are showing early signs that inflation may be headed southward. If that happens, Golub expects the Fed to signal a pause with their rate hikes over the next four to six months, triggering a strong market rally.

Bitcoin behaved the way we had projected in the previous analysis. It broke below $19,500 on September 6 and reached the $18,600 to $17,567.45 support zone on September 7.

This zone attracted strong buying as we had expected and the BTC/USD pair turned up from $18,527 on September 7. The bulls pushed the price above the overhead resistance of $20,715 on September 9 and propelled the pair to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) has started to turn up and the relative strength index (RSI) has jumped into positive territory. This suggests that bulls have the upper hand.

If buyers sustain the price above the 50-day SMA for two more days, the possibility of a rally to the overhead resistance at $25,000 increases. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to signal the start of a new uptrend. To invalidate this positive view, the bears will have to sink the price back below the moving averages. If they succeed, the pair could again drop to the $18,600 to $17,567.45 support zone

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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August’s nonfarm payrolls data offered some relief to traders as the economy added 315,000 jobs for the month, well below the 526,000 in July. It was the lowest monthly gain since April 2021, increasing hopes that the data leaves some scope for the Federal Reserve to soften its aggressive tightening policy. The CME FedWatch Tool showed a 60% probability of a 75 basis points rate hike for the September 21 meeting, down from 75% on August 29.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average initially rallied by 370 points following the jobs report but it later trimmed its gains and closed down by 337.98 points. The Nasdaq
Composite extended its losing streak to six consecutive days for the first time since 2019.

Bitcoin has been trading inside a tight range between $19,500 and $20,715 for the past few days. The failure to push the price back above $20,715 indicates that bears are trying to flip this level into resistance.

The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory indicate advantage to sellers.

If bears sink the price below $19,500, the selling could intensify and the BTC/USD pair could drop to the next support zone between $18,600 and $17,567.45. The bulls are expected to defend this zone aggressively because a failure to do so could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then slide to $16,764.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above $20,715, it will suggest that bulls are back in the game. That could push
the price to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). This level may again act as a resistance but if bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could rally to $24,666.

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The United States Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dashed hopes of any slowdown in the central bank’s aggressive monetary tightening in his speech at The Jackson Hole Symposium on August 26. Powell said that curbing inflation “requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance." He also warned that higher interest rates may “bring some pain to households and businesses.”

The central bank’s tightening has been negative for risky assets but the US dollar index (DXY) has been in a strong uptrend with no signs of topping out. There is a minor resistance near 110 but if this level is crossed, the DXY could continue its parabolic move and surge toward 120 as there is no major resistance in between. If that happens, the equities markets and crypto markets may remain under pressure as these assets generally have a strong inverse correlation with the DXY.

We warned traders in our previous analysis that a shallow rebound off the strong support of $20,715 showed that demand was drying up at higher levels. Bitcoin turned down sharply from the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and plunged below the $20,715 support on August 26.

The bulls are attempting to push the price back into the range but may face stiff resistance at the breakdown level of $20,715. If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that the bears have flipped the level into resistance.

That could increase the likelihood of a drop to $18,600 and then to the June 18 intraday low of $17,567.45. The bears will have to sink the price below this crucial support to signal the resumption of the downtrend.

Alternatively, if bulls push the price back above $20,715, it will suggest strong demand at lower levels. The moving averages may pose a strong challenge but if bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could attempt a rally to the resistance of the range at $24,666.

A break and close above the $25,000 level will be the first sign that the pair may have bottomed out. Until then, the pair could remain in a bottoming formation.

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The United States equities markets turned down sharply on August 19 after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed that participants believed “that there was little evidence to date that inflation pressures were subsiding.” Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said on August 18 that he favored another large rate hike in the September meeting as he did not believe that inflation had peaked.

This stoked fears that the Fed could continue with its aggressive rate hikes. The selling continued on August 22 as market participants speculated that Fed Chairman
Jerome Powell may sound more hawkish during his speech on August 26 at the central banking conference in Jackson Hole.

The deteriorating macro environment and the close correlation with equities markets stalled the recovery in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin witnessed a sharp drop on August
19 which resulted in liquidations of more than $551 million in a 24-hour period, according to data from crypto analytics platform Coinglass.

The bulls repeatedly pushed the price above the overhead resistance of $24,666 between August 13 to 15 but could not sustain the higher levels. The buyers again tried to clear the overhead hurdle on August 17 but the bears held their ground.

This may have tempted short-term traders to book profits. That pulled the price below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which was the first sign that bulls may be losing their grip.

The selling momentum picked up on August 19 and the BTC/USD pair plunged to the strong support at $20,715. The bulls have successfully defended the level for the past three days but the shallow rebound suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.

The downsloping 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory indicate advantage to sellers. The bears will again attempt to sink the price below $20,715. If they succeed, the pair could slide to the next support at $18,600. If this level also cracks, the decline could extend to the June 18 intraday low of $17,567.45.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. Such a move could open the doors for a possible rally to $24,666. A buying opportunity could open for the aggressive traders above $21,800 with the stops placed just below $20,700.

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Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Investment Partners, in an interview with CNBC, said that the forced deleveraging in the crypto space was over and the markets may have hit an equilibrium. He said that Bitcoin “remains a really good macro asset for an environment where the macro is pretty uncertain.” Novogratz added that Ethereum’s
upcoming Merge in September could be a major catalyst that may generate enthusiasm among investors.

The Goerli testnet successfully shifted to the proof-of-stake consensus mechanism on August 11, increasing confidence that Ethereum’s Merge will finally happen in September. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin tweeted on August 12 that the terminal total difficulty was set to 58750000000000000000000. And according to bordel.wtf, the Merge is expected to happen around September 15.

The bulls repeatedly pushed Bitcoin above the overhead resistance at $24,666 last week but they could not sustain the higher levels. This suggests that the bears are aggressively defending this level.

However, a minor positive is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the traders are not rushing to the exit as they expect the up-move to continue.

The upsloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

If buyers sustain the price above $24,666, the bullish momentum could pick up and the BTC/USD pair could rally to $28,000. This level may again act as a major hurdle but if bulls push the price above it, the rally could reach $32,000.

The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA. Such a move will indicate that the short-term traders may be booking profits. That could pull the price down to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

This level is likely to attract buyers.

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