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Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Investment Partners, in an interview with CNBC, said that the forced deleveraging in the crypto space was over and the markets may have hit an equilibrium. He said that Bitcoin “remains a really good macro asset for an environment where the macro is pretty uncertain.” Novogratz added that Ethereum’s
upcoming Merge in September could be a major catalyst that may generate enthusiasm among investors.

The Goerli testnet successfully shifted to the proof-of-stake consensus mechanism on August 11, increasing confidence that Ethereum’s Merge will finally happen in September. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin tweeted on August 12 that the terminal total difficulty was set to 58750000000000000000000. And according to bordel.wtf, the Merge is expected to happen around September 15.

The bulls repeatedly pushed Bitcoin above the overhead resistance at $24,666 last week but they could not sustain the higher levels. This suggests that the bears are aggressively defending this level.

However, a minor positive is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the traders are not rushing to the exit as they expect the up-move to continue.

The upsloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

If buyers sustain the price above $24,666, the bullish momentum could pick up and the BTC/USD pair could rally to $28,000. This level may again act as a major hurdle but if bulls push the price above it, the rally could reach $32,000.

The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA. Such a move will indicate that the short-term traders may be booking profits. That could pull the price down to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

This level is likely to attract buyers.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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A positive sign is that analysts are increasingly showing confidence that crypto prices may have bottomed out. JPMorgan said in a recent note that limited new contagion from the collapse of the Terra ecosystem and positive data flow from Ethereum’s testnets raised expectations that the merge will happen in 2022. Both these
have been the main drivers of the current recovery. Analysts at JPMorgan believe that crypto prices may have “found a floor.”

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone and senior market structure analyst Jamie Coutts said in the August “Crypto Outlook” report that Bitcoin may be building a base “akin to about $5,000 in 2018-19.” The analysts said that the “risk vs. reward tilted favourably for one of the greatest bull markets in
history, potentially starting a revival after a sharp retreat.”

We highlighted in our previous analysis that the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) was an important level to keep an eye on because a bounce off it could result in a retest of the overhead resistance at $24,666 and that is how it played out.

Bitcoin has formed a series of higher lows though it has not been able to form higher highs. This indicates that bears are posing a strong challenge at $24,666 but bulls are buying on every minor dip.

The rising 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

If buyers thrust the price above $24,666, the BTC/USD pair could pick up momentum because there is no resistance until $28,000. The bears may attempt to stall the rally at this level but if bulls overcome this barrier, the uptrend could even reach $32,000.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the uptrend line, it will suggest that the bulls have given up in the short term and are closing their positions. That could sink the price to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Bitcoin soared above $22,000 and Ether above $1,500 on July 18, raising hopes that the worst may be over for the cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin’s recovery started on July 13 even as the United States inflation in the month of June hit a 40-year high of 9.1%, much higher than economist expectations of 8.8%, according to Refinitiv.

The recovery in Bitcoin and Ether on July 18 pushed the total crypto market capitalization above $1 trillion for the first time since June 13, according to coinmarketcap data.

Does the recovery mark the end of the bear phase in Bitcoin? Market intelligence firm Glassnode believes that a “genuine bottom formation could be underway” but more sideways action is likely in the next few weeks.

We had projected in our previous analysis that if Bitcoin rebounds off the support line, it could reach the resistance line of the ascending channel and that is what happened.

The price has turned down from the resistance line, indicating that bears are active at higher levels. If the price rebounds off the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), the bulls will make another attempt to clear the overhead hurdle.

If they succeed, the BTC/USD pair could pick up momentum and rally toward the pattern target of $26,500. If this level is crossed, the up-move could reach $32,000.

On the other hand, if the price slips below the 20-day EMA, the pair could drop to the support line of the channel. A bounce off this level will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the channel for a few more days.

The flattish 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint also suggest a range-bound action in the near term.

The bears will have to sink the price below the channel to gain the upper hand. That could open the doors for a retest of the June 18 intraday low of $17,567.45.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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The first half of 2022 has been brutal for both the cryptocurrency and equity markets. Investors fled risky assets as the United States Federal Reserve commenced aggressive monetary tightening to control surging inflation and that stoked fears of a recession.

The S&P 500 plunged 20.6% in the first six months of the year, its worst performance since the first half of 1970. According to Fox Business, Nasdaq recorded its worst-ever performance in the first six months of the year with a drop of 29.5%.

The damage in the crypto markets was even harsher with Bitcoin plunging 56.2% in the second quarter, its sharpest quarterly fall since the 67% fall in the third quarter of 2011. A large part of the losses happened in June when Bitcoin shed 37.3%, its biggest monthly fall since 2011.

In another morale booster to Bitcoin bulls, Deutsche Bank analysts Marion Laboure and Galina Pozdnyakova said in a recent report that Bitcoin could rise to $28,000 by the end of the year. According to the analysts, the crypto markets will be boosted by a strong recovery in the S&P 500 which could rise to its January levels.

Bitcoin plunged below the immediate support at $19,500 but the bulls bought the dip near $18,500. The buyers successfully defended this level from June 30 to July 3 and that started a recovery on July 4.

The bulls will attempt to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it will suggest that the bears may be losing their grip.

The BTC/USD pair could then attempt a rally to the resistance line of the descending channel. A break and close above this level could signal a potential change in trend.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

The bears will then again try to pull the price below $18,500 and challenge the critical support at $17,567.45. If this support cracks, the pair could resume the downtrend. The next support on the downside is $16,000 and then $14,000.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Risky assets made a strong comeback last week. The United States equities markets rallied more than 5.4% and the crypto markets saw strong gains in select altcoins.
Although Bitcoin sustained above the psychological level of $20,000, the gains have been muted. This shows that the investors remain cautious and are not convinced that a bottom has been formed.

Institutional investors continue to withdraw funds from digital assets, according to the latest CoinShares’ weekly “Digital Asset Fund Flows” report. Digital investment products saw the largest outflows of $423 million, mainly due to outflows from the Canadian exchanges on June 17.

The recovery in Bitcoin’s price could be a long-drawn affair, according to Binance founder and chief executive Changpeng Zhao. In an interview with The Guardian,
Zhao said that it could “take a few months or a couple of years” before Bitcoin reaches its all-time high but added that “no one can predict the future.”

Bitcoin’s recovery could not rise above $22,000 and reach the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels and bears
continue to sell on minor rallies.

Both moving averages are sloping down and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative territory, indicating advantage to bears.

The critical level to watch on the downside is $19,500. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, it will suggest that bulls are attempting to form a higher low. The buyers will then make one more attempt to push the price above the 20-day EMA.

If they succeed, the BTC/USD pair could rally to the resistance line of the descending channel.

On the other hand, if bears sink the price below $19,500, the pair could retest the June 18 intraday low of $17,567.45. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $16,000 and next to $14,000.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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Bitcoin dropped to $17,567 on June 18, its lowest level since November 2020. The drop below $20,000 was the first occasion in Bitcoin’s short history that it breached the all-time high made during the previous bull market cycle. Traders fear that if Bitcoin starts to trade below $20,000, it could lead to margin calls and forced liquidations. Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, expects Bitcoin to drop to $10,000.

Some institutional investors seem to be dumping their positions in a hurry. Canada's Purpose Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (BTCC) and 3iQ CoinShares Bitcoin ETF,
have both witnessed massive liquidations in the past few days. BTCC’s holdings plunged from 47,818 Bitcoin to 23,307 Bitcoin between June 16 and June 17 while 3iQ’s stash reduced from 23,917 Bitcoin on June 1 to 12,668 Bitcoin on June 17.

We expected bulls to defend the $20,000 support but the bears had other plans. They pulled the price to $17,567 on June 18 but could not sustain the lower levels. This
suggests strong buying on dips. The BTC/USD pair rose back above $20,000 on June 19 but the buyers are struggling to build upon this recovery.

If the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that bears have flipped the $20,000 level into resistance. That could increase the possibility of a drop to $17,567. If this level cracks, the next stop could be the support line of the descending channel near $16,000.

Conversely, if buyers sustain the price above $20,000, the pair could rally to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). This is an important level to watch out for.

If the price turns down from this level but rebounds off $20,000, it will suggest that buyers are attempting to form a higher low.

The bulls will then attempt to push the price toward the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). A break and close above this resistance could indicate a potential change in trend.

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The selling picked up momentum after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on June 10 that the consumer price index soared 8.6% for the 12 months ending May, the largest annual increase since December 1981. The sell-off in the equity markets continued on June 13 and the S&P 500 fell into the bear market territory.

After the fall in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy’s stash of 129,219 Bitcoins purchased at $3.97 billion is valued at $2.82 billion and Tesla’s Bitcoin holding acquired at $1.5 billion is valued at $945 million, according to Bitcoin Treasuries. Talks of MicroStrategy facing margin calls below $21,000 have been doing rounds but the firm’s CEO Michael Saylor previously said that Bitcoin will have to drop below $3,500 before it becomes a problem.

We had suggested in our previous analysis that if Bitcoin plummets below $25,338, it could drop to $20,000. That is what happened and Bitcoin dropped to $20,816.40 on June 14. The bulls are expected to defend the $20,000 support with all their might.

The sharp fall of the past few days has sent the relative strength index deep into the oversold territory. This suggests that the selling may have been overdone in the short term and a relief rally is likely.

If the price rebounds off the current level, the BTC/USD pair could rise to $25,338 and then to $28,800. The bears will try to flip this zone into resistance. If they do that, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

The bears will then again attempt to resume the downtrend. A break below $20,000 could open the doors for a possible decline to $15,000 but we give it a low possibility of occurring.

On the upside, the bulls will have to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) to indicate that the sellers may be losing their grip. A potential trend change will be signalled if bulls push the pair above $32,646.

Lastly please check out the advancement’s happening in the cryptocurrency world.

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