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Superforex Company News

Discussion in 'HYIP! Dangerous Investments' started by SuperForex, Mar 21, 2017.

  1. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian


    The North Korean Crisis



    Tensions continue to rise as North Korea's Independence Day looms around the corner.


    One could hardly go through this week without hearing about what is shaping up to be the biggest global issue right now: North Korea. The isolated communist state came under the spotlight three weeks ago when North Korea leader Kim Jong Un announced his intention to launch an attack on Guam, a territory under the jurisdiction of the United States. What ensued was a series of threats between Trump and Kim Jong Un, which led to a tense situation on the global financial markets. The stress began to ease off last week, but on Sunday the world awoke in chaos again, as North Korea performed a successful test of a hydrogen bomb in the ocean, which resulted in an earthquake felt in neighboring South Korea and Japan.


    Even though there were no casualties, this strike was quite significant. For one thing, many countries had speculated that North Korea did not have the technology to successfully mount such a destructive bomb on a missile, nor to aim it properly. Since the country lives under a self-imposed isolation from the rest of the world, their development has been hampered by a lack of exchange of technologies. It has also been very difficult for the rest of the world to evaluate the readiness and conditions for war in North Korea due to the lack of information (or, rather, the state propaganda that is broadcast instead of information, which many suspect is inaccurate). However, this strike proved that North Korea is much farther ahead in its nuclear program than previously assumed – a power on which Kim Jong Un’s regime relies. The North Korean leader has repeatedly ignored the condemnation of the United Nations regarding his nuclear weapons – and from his perspective, as someone who faces many enemies and might have to protect his position with force, it makes sense that he wants to hold on to his weapons.


    It is also important to add that while hydrogen bombs are not talked about as often as atomic ones, they are in fact more dangerous. The test that North Korea performed had five-six times the magnitude of what the USA used in the devastating World War II attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. If North Korea does have the means to send these missiles across the globe to attack North America, the destruction will be unprecedented.


    To try to mitigate the crisis before the irreversible occurs, the United Nations again spoke about sanctions against North Korea. The United States, arguably the loudest voice in the argument, has suggested a ban on exporting oil to North Korea. Without fuel, the country would definitely be forced to reconsider its policies, but it might also cause a serious economic crisis in the country where the living standard is already reportedly poor enough.


    Even if an oil embargo could success in theory, we might not see it in practice. North Korea trades with two countries: Russia and China, both of which are members of the UN Security Council and could veto the embargo. Even though both have spoken against North Korea’s recent actions, it is unlikely that they would support anything too harsh. China, in particular, does not wish to lose its position of importance in North Korea. Russia too is protecting its interests by supporting the claim that an oil embargo will endanger the civilian population more than it would neutralize the military program of North Korea. The United Nations Security Council is yet to vote on any measures against North Korea.


    Meanwhile, amid the geopolitical tensions we saw the financial markets in disarray. Stocks moved up and down, as did currencies. The dollar lost some of its positions against major currencies, and the EUR/USD was able to pass the psychological threshold at $1.20. We should note, however, that the American dollar also suffered for other reasons – the destruction caused by hurricane Harvey hasn’t been fully documented yet, and the US southern coast is again in danger of another hurricane, Irma.


    The big winner this week has without a doubt been the gold, which reached its highest level in a year. As a safe haven asset, gold is attractive to traders who find other instrument too insecure at the moment. Now the markets are holding their breath as tomorrow North Korea celebrates its independence and there might be another attack to “commemorate” the day. As long as the tensions continue, we are likely to see this trend stick around.


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  2. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian


    GBP/NZD: Technical Outlook before UK Bank Rate



    The GBP/NZD is ahead of 1.8360 after breaking through the resistance area.


    If you want to be successful in Forex trading, you have to follow your rules and your trusted analysis, especially if you use classical methods of analysis. In our last report about the GBP/NZD pair we recommended buying the pair for several reasons: lthe pair had reached further than 61.8% Fibonacci and was trading above the ascending trend line, and there also was a double bottom pattern, all of which are signs which told us to buy the pair. This is why we bought it at 1.7700 - we have taken our profit at 1.7850. Then we bought the pair again after breaking the neckline at 1.7885 and the prices hit our target today at 1.8230.


    The pair is now trading around 38.2% Fibonacci in a series of impulse waves, after it reached 1.7500 - close to the upside trend line. The pair has a resistance area at 1.8362 which the pair is expected to reach in the next few days. That is in case the pair is still trading above the support area at 1.7906 and the moving average 50. The Stochastic indicator started giving us a sell signal, which is a sign that the pair will make a downward correction movement.


    The Next Few Days


    From this classical analysis of the pair we can’t take any positions now at the current level. We can buy the GBP/NZD at the support level 1.7906 or sell at the resistance level 1.8362, but we prefer the buying scenario for the next trading days. In effect, we can take a buy position now with a small volume and keep our target at 1.8362.


    This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the CPI and the official bank rate next Thursday.


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  3. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian


    What will happen to the dollar index after "Irma" and "Harvey"



    The calculation of losses from natural disasters is out.


    Hurricane Irma has almost calmed down and now it’s time to assess the damage. After Harvey's passing about $ 12 billion were already paid for insurance payments. Of course, losses, in this case, were incurred by insurance companies. The fact is that as of June 20, 2016 in Harris County, a region that includes Houston, only 15% of the property was insured against floods. Also there is a National Flood Insurance Program. The program pays damages to those who do not have flood insurance, and often borrows from the Treasury Department to fulfill their claims obligations.


    We will be able to observe after a full assessment of the damage from natural disasters, a surge of activity related to the need to restore the affected regions. This means activity in the real estate and employment market, which can help the dollar strengthen its position.


    On the other hand, these are internal costs that will be covered by the state. Therefore, experts differ in their judgments, how this will affect the economy and where the dollar index will go.


    At the moment, the index continues its downward movement after yesterday's slight increase and at the moment is 91.78.


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  4. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian


    AUD / CAD technical analysis



    At the moment, the pair is trading in a downtrend and is between 23.6 and 0.00 Fibo levels with a daily chart.

    Since recently some reliable enough data came from Canada, we see further strengthening of the Canadian currency.

    The indices of RSI and Stochastic also confirm the downward movement after a small correction of 75 points.

    At the moment, the pair is also under our Moving Average with a period of 28 and tends to a resistance level lying at 0.00 Fibo level (0.9655).

    Tomorrow a number of important news will be released in Australia, at 2:15 (GMT +3) the speach of the Deputy Head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Debbel will take place, and at 4.30 (GMT +3) the changes in the level of employment for August will be published. This may slightly increase the volatility of our pair at the time of the news release.

    By day trading, we are now seeing a downward movement, so there is an opportunity to take short positions. With take-profit and stop loss at the levels of 0.0 and 23.6 by Fibo, respectively. We also have a twice tested resistance level of 0.9690, on which it is also possible to fix profits and look for further fluctuations of the pair.

    The intersection of our gliding (28) body with a candle and the subsequent fastening of the next candle by the body will highlight a possible reversal.

    Support and resistance levels:

    0.9655, 0.9690, 0.9745, 0.9805, 0.9870, 0.9900, 09975, 1.0050
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  5. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian


    USD / CHF technical analysis



    At the moment, the pair is trading in the 0.9450 - 0.9775 corridor located at Fibo levels of 0.00 and 38.2. respectively.

    Now we see that the pair found a resistance level from above and went from it back to the values of 0.9550 and 09450.

    Despite the decision on the interest rate of the Swiss bank, our pair is trading without much acceleration and, once again testing the resistance level from above, returned to the corridor.

    We can observe a possible acceleration of this instrument after the release of data on the consumer price index in the US at 15.30 (GMT +3). So at the moment, based on our technical levels, we can take a position after the release of news that could help strengthen the dollar. Now the price is testing the resistance level of 0.9655 and is likely to seek a level of 0.9775.

    The RSI indicator has not yet reached the oversold level and indicates an upward movement to us.

    Support and resistance levels: 0.9450 0.9550 0.9655 0.9775
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  6. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian


    A new wave of tension



    North Korea conducted a nuclear test again

    This morning on September 15, Japan stated that North Korea once again conducted nuclear tests and the missile flew over the northeastern part of the country. At the same time, South Korea also conducted military exercises, firing a rocket at sea. Earlier, after the new sanctions imposed by the UN on North Korea, their leader Kim Jong-un promised to flood Japan and turn the US into "ash and darkness" and accelerated the testing of nuclear weapons.

    US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson exerts pressure on China to preserve the oil embargo, which is quite a powerful tool of pressure. However, China can limit trade relations on an official level, but can not deter smugglers, which hamper the pressure on the Kim Jong-un regime.

    This news caused a lively sale of assets and sent investors to search for a quiet harbor.

    This time, the markets reacted more calmly to this news and volatility weakened much faster than the previous week.

    The dollar again continues the upward movement after corrective movement relative to the Yen.

    The pound is traded at the level of annual highs against the dollar and may soon begin the corrective movement, after yesterday's sharp jump. Talks about possible increase in the interest rate in the coming months for a decade sounded on the meeting of the Committee on Monetary Policy. Such data was regarded positively by traders, which gave a sharp push to the British currency. And breaking through the strong resistance levels has reached new annual highs. On Friday we are expecting a fixation of profits and that the price will depart from the current values.
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  7. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    GBP/CAD Technical Outlook after the Channel Breaking Out


    The GBP/CAD is ahead of 1.6611 and 1.6850 after breaking the channel.

    In our recent report about the GBP/CAD currency pair we recommended selling the pair and the prices already hit our first target at 1.5927 to make a profit of +220 pips, then the pair returned back to break the price channel and the resistance level last Thursday.

    The price channel which we were trading inside was strong because it has 5 tops and 4 bottoms, so when the prices broke upwards from it, the pair rose more on Friday to trade now around 1.6525. The prices recorded the highest level on Friday at 1.6574, close to the resistance level at 1.6611. We expect the price to reach the resistance and make new highs but we have to be careful in case the pair makes a price action pattern on the resistance area. The MACD indicator gave us the buy signal last week.

    The Next Few Days

    After we saw the prices break up the price channel we should only think of buy orders, as there are no sell opportunities anymore in these levels. We can take a buy position now at the current level 1.6523 and keep our first target at 50% Fibonacci at 1.6850, and the second one at 1.7050. We can take another buy order if the pair declined to the moving average 50 on the daily chart.

    Bank of England governor Carney will speak today at the Central Banking Lecture hosted by the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC and we have the retail sales from the UK on Wednesday, in addition to the CPI and retail sales from Canada on Friday, so we have to be careful due to the news this week.



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  8. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis before BoJ Policy Rate


    The GBP/JPY rally will continue after retesting the broken level.

    The GBP/JPY rally hasn’t finished yet. The pair recorded its highest prices in more than 14 months after the Brexit vote on June 23 last year. The pair had a strong resistance area at 147.93, which it tried to break three times before and failed in December, May and last July, but this month is different because the pair broke it up last Friday.

    The pair is now trading at 150.65, above the support area and the trend line. Last month the pair broke the trend line down but it found the support area which we mentioned before and failed to break it, then we noticed rising bottoms before coming back to trade above the line. Yesterday the pair moved up and down and then closed its candle a little bit below the opening price, so prices could visit the broken area 147.95-148.25 again to retest it and then will go up.

    The Next Few Days

    The next few days we won’t think about selling the GBP/JPY pair, only buy it. The prices are now in the middle between support and resistance areas, so we can take a buy order now with a small lot and take another buy order when it retests the broken area around 148.00 or the trend line or the moving average 50, keeping our targets at 152.80.

    This week the markets don’t offer much hot news from the UK, except for the retail sales data tomorrow. We also have something important on Thursday this week - the Bank of Japan’s decision about the policy rate, which is expected no change at -0.10%.

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  9. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian


    CAD / JPY technical analysis


    At the moment, on the chart of H4, we see the return of prices in the framework of the rising channel. Drawn for 28 days.

    Given the recently published positive statistics for Canada, we can assume that our upward movement will continue and at the moment we are seeing a correction and revision of the positions by bulls that decided to fix the profit.

    On the daily chart, we have not yet seen the figures of absorption and the reversal pattern. But on the chart H4 appeared "shooting star", which can signal us about a possible correction. And the ability to draw a "head and shoulders" figure, with a shoulder level in the area of 88.90.

    But looking at the overall schedule and considering the overall movement, the recommendation is to look for points to enter the long position at support levels.

    Support and resistance levels

    87.72

    88.35

    88.89

    89.50

    90.10

    90.90

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  10. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian


    GBP/EUR Technical analysis




    The pair is moving within a downward trend.

    At this moment the pair is trading in a down trend, slowing down near its resistance levels. We can also note that against the backdrop of strong data, the pair can quickly overcome the nearby resistance levels, as it happened after the press conference of the Bank of England, against which the pound sharply increased its quotes.

    Today at 4.30 pm (GMT +3), ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to speak at a press conference. It is necessary to closely monitor the investor sentiment, as many feel that the euro will be pressured and our pair will continue the downward movement.

    Our advice for you is to set medium goals and small stop-loss orders.

    Support and resistance levels:

    0.8880

    0.8825

    0.8780

    0.8715

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  11. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    German Elections 2017


    Germans will be electing a new government this Sunday - how would that affect Europe?

    Recently global news have been almost monopolized by three topics: the tensions between the United States and North Korea, natural disasters striking one after another, and the recent Federal Reserve meeting and talks of monetary policy changes around the world. One could hardly tell that there is something else very important going on this week: parliamentary elections in Germany.

    Why aren’t media talking about the German elections? After all, the elections in France this spring, as well as the British preliminary elections received a lot of news coverage when they were happening. The most likely explanation is that the results of the German elections are not likely to be very surprising. The current Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel still enjoys a stable level of support and is a respected global leader, so most polls indicate that her party would easily win these elections. However, it still is worth it to take a look at German politics, because anything that changes there has the potential to affect the European Union and European markets greatly.

    While it is true that Merkel will probably win herself a fourth mandate as chancellor, it is important to note that more parties are expected to make the cut this time. Likely we would see six parties enter the Bundestag. Six voices pulling in different directions is bound to make things more difficult and even slow down Germany, hindering its ability to continue to act as a global political leader.

    While immigration seems to be on everybody’s mind and is central to debates between candidates, the number of asylum seekers has dramatically dropped in 2017 compared to previous years. There are other issues on the table such as labour, pensions, education, and more – and they can all affect the way Germany’s economy works – and the way Germany participates in the European Union.

    One of the most important things to watch out for in these elections is how the Alternative fuer Deutschland party would do. The far-right political party, often labeled as modern-day nazis, is very conservative and outspoken about its strong stance on immigration: they feel that trying to harbor Muslim refugees and integrate them into European society is a lost cause and oppose the current lax immigration policy of Germany that is championed by Merkel. So far Germany has been the leader in the refugee crisis, encouraging countries to accept and help refugees. This issue is close to the hearts of Germans, as they found themselves in a similar position during World War II – they know what it is like to be a refugee, and they also know what it feels like to be mistaken for a terrorist (or a nazi), just because of your origin. That is why Germany has always maintained that it would extend a helping hand to those in need. However, as the number of terrorist attacks around Europe increases, many people begin to fear for their safety, and other countries, such as France, have called for stricter immigration policies in order to increase safety. This brings us back to the AfD: nazis have not been in power in Germany since World War II, but over the past few years they seem to have gathered a lot of support. It is expected that they may reap as much as 10% of the vote in these elections, securing them a comfortable section of the German Parliament. This means that they would have a say in German politics, and when dissenting views clash in parliament, the stability of a country suffers, as does its ability to act (just look at how poorly the UK is handling Brexit, simply due to a lack of majority in parliament).

    Overall, change is coming to Germany, even if Merkel is re-elected. And with that, change will invariably come to the eurozone as well.

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  12. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    EUR/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart


    After breaking the channel we are still waiting for the Moving Average of the pair.

    Since the EUR/JPY pair broke down the price channel last month, it is still fighting to make new highs below the channel. The pair retested it a few times before, the last one happening the previous week when the pair reached the resistance area 134.40-50 and now it has been declining for two days to trade at 133.12.

    In our previous article about the pair we said that we would sell the pair once it broke the moving average down, but the pair didn’t make it. Instead, it just touched the MA and back to rise again. That is why up until now we could not take buy positions - because the pair couldn’t break above the resistance level and the stochastic indicator had been giving us the sell signal. Now we have a strong support area at the SMA 50 at 132.31.

    The Next Few Days

    Based on this simple analysis of the pair, after retesting the channel we are going to sell the pair at the current level 133.12 and keep our target at 132.35. We are going to wait for the SMA breaking down, then we can sell again below 131.30 and our target for this trade will be at 126.50. However, this whole scenario depends on the pair still trading below the resistance level 134.50.

    This week the market doesn’t bring any hot news from the European Union or Japan, except the speeches of the Central Bank's president Draghi today and Friday, and Bank of Japan governor Kuroda on Thursday.

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  13. Holy Prophet

    Holy Prophet Jackobian

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  14. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian


    Oil Prices Recovering


    Analysts feel that for the first time in two years oil prices are on their way to recovery.

    Last week the prices of oil (and other commodities) suffered somewhat due to a strengthening of the American dollar caused by last week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. However, despite the noticeable decrease, the price of oil still didn’t fall to dangerous levels and remained relatively stable.

    Now analysts are saying that the oil market is heading towards a stabilization, and is perhaps approaching the resolution of the oil crisis of the past two years. This year OPEC as well as non-members who are oil exporters such as Russia have managed to cut down their production dramatically, which helped alleviate the oversupply on the market for crude oil. As a result, the price of oil went up by 15% in recent months.

    American crude oil is currently at around $50.51, while London brent crude oil is trading around the $56 mark. It’s worth noting that oil extraction in the United States was previously affected by a series of natural disasters that hit the North American coastlines.



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    Last edited: Sep 26, 2017
  15. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    EUR/SGD: Fundamental Review & Forecast



    The results from the elections in Germany negatively impacted the EUR, though it still has a potential for stabilizing.

    Starting from Monday, September 25 the euro came under pressure due to the election results in Germany. The ruling party together with Angela Merkel won the election, but with the lowest result since 1949. They are not able to form a coalition easily, as it happened at previous elections. However, other parties also cannot form a coalition themselves, which is why nobody doubts that Angela Merkel will again be Chancellor. Nevertheless, it is expected that negotiations on creating a coalition will be difficult because the former coalition partners do not want to continue their cooperation. In any case, the opposition will be stronger than ever, so investors prefer at the moment to invest in other assets.

    On the other hand, the Singaporean dollar has been supported this week due to the recent data about the volume of manufacturing production in August, which exceeded the forecasts of investors both in annual and monthly terms, although the growth has been less rapid than in the previous month and amounted to +19.1% against the expected 14.2% YoY.

    On the EUR/SGD chart we can see the formation of a weak downward trend which forms after a steady flat period. The support line shifts down, but now we have also a high probability of a price correction. After the market reacted to the elections in Germany and took into account the probability of political uncertainty in Germany, the euro still has a potential for stabilizing in price and strengthening. Market volatility will be lower next week, after an intense news period. In the near future we can expect data about the business activity index (PMI) from Singapore and about the volume of retail sales in the EU.

    In this situation the most optimal course of action would be the deals to BUY in short-term trading, which is confirmed by the MACD oscillator. Nevertheless, the probability of the continuation of the new downtrend in favor of the SGD is preserved in the medium term.
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  16. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    At present our pair is trading within the daily Fibo levels and pushing away from the level of 1.2220 (Fibo level 0.00). It has approached and is currently testing the level of 23.6.

    So far the pair has not been able to break through the resistance level of the candle body and we are seeing a correction that can last up to 1.2355.

    Furthermore, the MACD histogram shows a weakening, and the Stochastic indicator is showing a possible spread. It is still in the overbought zone, but about to enter a really strong correction or spread. Therefore, it's too early to say what position we should take, until we receive a more conclusive result.

    Of the fundamental factors today we have data on the US GDP for the second quarter. The pair might not reach our resistance levels, with indicators exceeding the projected 3% and rushing up.

    In addition, the Canadian government is concerned about strengthening its own currency and is ready to reduce the level of inflation.

    Overall, we are looking for points to enter long positions at the current support levels and expect an upward movement of the pair.

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  17. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian


    Trump`s tax reform



    How does this new suggested legislation affect the US economy?

    This week we chose to return our discussion to the political situation in the United States where we have another major news story: the new tax plan proposed by President Trump’s administration. This story is significant particularly because this is barely the second major piece of legislation that Trump’s office has produced. The first one was the now infamous health care bill which died a slow death in Congress, repeatedly. The failure of the administration then drove investors to doubt the stability of Trump’s mandate, which was a major contributor to the record lows of the American dollar registered up until last week. Can this new bill on taxes have the same impact? Let’s see!

    First off, we need to acknowledge how important tax policy was to Trump’s presidential campaign. He had a few key issues that were the highlights of his rhetoric: immigration, repeal Obamacare, and a better tax policy, among a few that stand out the most. His attempts to curb immigration through travel bans have been met with major disapproval, his plans to repeal or replace Obamacare have failed, and now his proposal on tax policy is met with a lot of doubt before it’s even fully-defined. Trump’s previous failures managed to shake the dollar, so it is reasonable to argue that if his tax bill is a fiasco, he might hurt the American currency again.

    The plan that Trump’s administration announced on Wednesday can hardly be called anything, according to experts. It contains vague outlines of the administration’s goals while it lacks clear explanations of how they propose to achieve them. The actual work on making this plan more meaningful still lies ahead and may take months, according to CNN. What we know for certain is that the plan will decrease the top income tax from 39.6 to 35%, giving a major advantage to the richest Americans. The proposal would suggests an increase of the ratio of income that is exempt from taxes, which would mean a lower tax for every individual. While this sounds great for people’s personal incomes, it would make a major dent in the budget of the United States, due to trillions of dollars of potential tax revenue not being collected.

    Trump’s tax plan doesn’t provide any guidance on how the budget shortage will be compensated under such a policy. It also doesn’t prove that this new tax system won’t place a greater burden on the middle class, which Trump has stated he wants to protect. It very clearly benefits the rich, while it’s murky (at best) in terms of all other income groups in the United States.

    The plan also suggests a simplification of the tax system by collapsing the current seven-step policy (where seven different income groups are taxed a different percentage, between 10% and 39.6% for the poorest and richest incomes, respectively). The new system would have just three groups: 12%, 25%, and 35%, but the income brackets for each tax rate are still unknown. It’s also interesting that some corporate taxes are proposed for the 25% rate instead of the 35%, which may cause a lot of tax fraud.

    Considering how much information is missing from the proposal, it’s still very difficult to dissect it. However, Republicans themselves do not agree on many of these issues, not to mention that Democrats are not likely to support anything that cuts the taxes of the wealthy, so this piece of legislation is likely to have trouble passing through Congress – if it is ever completed.

    Right now there might not be too much to this story as we still need to hear more concrete points about the tax bill. However, it’s worth it to stay tuned and watch out for further instability within the United States. They are already in the spotlight due to tensions with North Korea – any internal disorder would only worsen their economic climate and weaken the dollar.

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  18. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    GBP/AUD Technical Outlook before the Cash Rate


    Looking for new highs after breaking the price channel.

    In our last report about the GBP/AUD on September 5 the pair was trading inside a descending price channel and we recommended selling the pair if the prices are still trading between its limits, unless the prices broke the limit. We saw the pair broke the upper limit on September 12 and retested the broken level on Sep 14, so we closed our sell positions and we were supposed to take buy positions after the retest, according to classical theory in case of breakthroughs.

    After the price channel breaking, Forex theory says that the prices will rise as much as the last upside wave before the channel. You can see the black lines in the chart below, so the target of this wave will be at 1.7870. The pair reached the key resistance level 1.7143 last week, which has 10 tops and bottoms on it. You can see 5 in the chart below, so the prices will make a little downward correction and rise again to break it. The moving average is still trading below the prices to support our positive vision for the pair.

    The Next Few Days

    Based on this analysis, we have taken a positive vision after breaking the channel. We know that the pair will break the resistance level soon, so we can take a buy position now at the current level at 1.7024 and if the prices return back to 1.6980 we can take another buy position, keeping our target at 1.7625 and another long-term target at 1.7870.

    Tomorrow we have the cash rate and the policy statement from the Republic Bank of Australia and PMI’s data from the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday we have the retail sales and trade balance from Australia, so we should trade carefully this week due to this news.


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  19. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis & Daily Chart


    The pound-dollar pair is now demonstrating a downward movement. Our price is under the slow moving MA (120), which now becomes our support level.

    Against the backdrop of not the most optimistic data on business activity in the industrial sector of the United Kingdom, we continue to observe the strengthening of the dollar against the British currency. That signals a possible slowdown in economic growth.

    Our technical indicators also indicate a downward movement. The pair is delayed near stronger, day-time Fibo levels.

    That is why at the moment it is recommended to look for points to enter short positions.

    Support and resistance levels:

    1.3350

    1.3300

    1.3225

    1.3200

    1.3160

    1.3100


    https://superforex.com/additionalimages/03-10-2017/gbp-usd-technical-analysis-daily-chart-031017-0.jpg
     
  20. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    USD/MXN: Short Review & Forecast


    The USD has strengthened against most currencies based on positive economic news and increased probability for a new rate hike this year.

    The U.S. dollar strengthened against most currencies this week. At the same time, the tragic event in Las Vegas wasn't noticed by investors amid positive economic news, which increases the probability of a rate hike in the United States. FED Chairman Janet Yellen also said that the Central Bank is not going to refuse one more rate hike which was scheduled this year. In addition, the dollar received support from the tax reform which was promised personally by Donald Trump. Also, the USD has been supported given the probability of a change of the head of the Federal Reserve. Analysts forecast that Kevin Warsh will be chosen as new FED Head. It's known that he is a supporter of a strong dollar and tight monetary policy. Consequently, there are perspectives for further strengthening of the dollar.


    Data about the Mexican economy also pleased investors this week. The business activity index amounted to 52.8 points in September, surpassing investors' expectations. This is a record level in recent years, but the decision of the Central Bank of Mexico to keep the rate at the same level didn't support significantly the MXN compared to the strong dollar. So, the rates continue in the frames of a downward trend, although the resistance line has been gradually shifting upwards for the last several months, indicating a weakening of the current trend. However, at the moment the most optimal would be the deals on the trend, which is confirmed unanimously by the MACD and Stochastics oscillators.

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  21. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian


    EUR/CHF


    At the moment we are seeing an upward movement in this pair. Despite the destabilizing factors from the eurozone, the euro continues to strengthen against the Swiss currency after a recent sharp fall. Technical indicators indicate to us an upward movement. The price at the moment is under the moving average MA (89) and is trying to break it.



    From a fundamental standpoint, we do not expect any factors contradicting this price movement neither for the franc, nor for the euro. Therefore, we will look for an entrance into long positions near the support lines and exit points near the resistance levels.



    Support and resistance levels:

    1.1355

    1.1435

    1.1460

    1.1495

    1.1525

    1.1550


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  22. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    Catalonia: Spanish or Independent?

    Last week's referendum has brought new tensions to Europe.

    The European markets shook this week, as last weekend Catalonia, an autonomous area comprising four provinces in northeastern Spain, held a referendum and voted in support of its independence from Spain. This week we would take a look at what happened and also where that leaves us now.

    To begin with, the political status of Catalonia has long been a pressing concern on the Iberian peninsula. The region has long claimed it is a distinct nation, owing to historical evidence that up to the 16th century, it used to be separate from Spain. In modern history, Catalonia has fought for its independence all throughout the 20th century: it first received a status as an autonomous region within Spain in 1932, which was taken away during Franco’s rule. The autonomous status of Catalonia was restored in the 1970s when Spain returned to democratic rule. Catalans are allowed to speak their own language and have their own government, though officially it is subordinate to the Spanish government.

    Over the last few years tensions regarding Catalan nationality have risen, culminating in last week’s referendum. Spain is naturally opposed to losing land and people which have been part of its territory over the last five centuries. Catalonia also happens to be a fairly rich territory. In general, if Catalonia declares independence, this would be perceived by Spanish authorities as an attempt to disrupt Spain’s territorial integrity and could even lead to (civil) war.

    Is Catalonia independent? Right now, no. The referendum’s goal was to assess whether the Catalan population wants to be independent from Spain. They voted 90% in favor, but it is up to the Catalan government to decide whether to act on this vote or not. The referendum itself caused violent clashes with the Spanish police, so the Catalan authorities might bide their time, working out a way to avoid future conflict. The Catalan president Carles Puigdemont has spoken about involving international diplomats to help hold peaceful negotiations.

    Naturally, the seriousness of this situation has caused ripples through the financial markets. Spanish stocks lost 2.7% this week, while banks that are based in Barcelona (the capital of Catalonia) were a whole 7% down. Spanish bonds have also decreased.

    So, what happens now? Some analysts believe that Catalonia is not fully prepared for independence, in terms of its political organs and readiness for policy making. The region has relied on Spain, and by extension, the European Union for many of its day-to-day activities, so severing that relationship will be hard. If Catalonia declared independence without Spain’s approval, it would find itself in a tight spot. Spain’s economy will also suffer immensely, and future clashes and protests will hinder business activity. Investors could give up on Spanish assets altogether, which could plunge the government into a recession.

    It is more likely that there will be a negotiation, which could win Catalonia additional levels of control over its activities, but would still not be a complete independence from Spain.

    Because of the current protests and blocked roads, it has been impossible for some businesses to operate as usual. If things continue to be so chaotic and uncertain, Spain’s economic growth would stall.

    Right now all eyes are on the Iberian Peninsula. If the King of Spain agrees to meet for peaceful negotiations, the pressure would ease off Spanish assets. However, if Catalonia moves ahead and declares independence, we could see a new crisis in Spain, and consequently Europe.


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  23. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    AUD/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart

    After breaking the channel, the pair is looking forward to the next support level.

    Last week the AUD/JPY declined by more than 130 pips after the negative retail sales from Australia, which came at -0.6% compared to the forecasted at 0.3% and the previous one at -0.2%. As a result, the pair slipped from 88.60 to trade now at 87.30. In our last report about the pair we recommended buying the pair around 88.00 and the prices hit our targets at 89.00 and 90.20.

    The pair is trading at the support level 87.38 after it broke the short-term price channel last Friday and closed the candle below it, so it may lead the price to further lows in the next days. The moving average is trading above the price to support the negative movement but we have to see a candle close below the support level. The RSI indicator is ahead of 10 level to make an overbought action.

    The Next Few Days

    Based on this analysis of the the daily chart, we will look forward to an H4 or daily candle closing below the support level 87.38 to sell the pair below it, keeping our target at 85.80. Then we will stay out of the market to see what will happen and the lower limit of the long-term channel. On the other hand, if we see the price back to trade above 88.25 we can buy it till the next resistance level.

    This week the markets don’t have any important news from Australia or Japan but we will trade carefully regarding any uncalendared news because of the political tensions between the USA and North Korea.


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  24. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    GBP/CAD Technical Outlook & Daily Chart



    After breaking the channel, we are still looking forward new highs, despite the downward movement this month.

    In our previous report about the GBP/CAD pair last month we mentioned the channel breaking and recommended buying the pair after the break. We saw the prices rose last month but they haven't hit our target yet. This month the pair has been declining to reach down the moving average for the last 50 days around 1.6367 - it found a support level there.

    The pair is now trading around 1.6500, below 38.2% Fibonacci but we expect the prices will break it up again to resume the correction wave and reach 50% and 61.8% and maybe more, if they break last month’s high after forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern. If the prices rose from here directly, the MACD indicator will start giving us a sell signal but the columns are still above the zero level.

    The Next Few Days

    The plan from here is straightforward. In case of any downward movement we will buy the pair to our main target at 50% - we can take a buy position now around 1.6500 and close part of the trade at 1.5710, and the rest of orders at 1.6850. That is in case the pair is still trading above 1.6223.

    The manufacturing production was released from the UK and came in positive numbers at 0.4%, compared to the forecasted 0.2%. This week we don’t have any important news elsewhere from the UK or Canada but we have to look at the chart periodically even once a day in anticipation of any uncalendared news.

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  25. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    XAU/USD: Short Review & Forecast

    The strong USD and the high probability of a rate hike this year put pressure on the GOLD. However, the geopolitical situation can change everything.

    The situation on the market changed last month and the upward trend turned into a downward one. Until September the dollar had been under pressure due to geopolitical conflicts, the failure of Donald Trump's reforms and weak economic statistics. Consequently, a further increasing of the interest rate this year was doubtful for investors. All these negative factors followed one by one and put pressure on the dollar. Therefore, investors chose safer assets. This led to the Gold rising in price since the beginning of the year.

    This week the dollar came under pressure again due to geopolitical risks because North Korea has announced new tests of ballistic missiles which are capable of reaching U.S. territory. However, the dollar has kept at a good level due to the strong economic statistics. The latest data on the labor market showed a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.2% - the lowest level since 2001. In addition, the average hourly earnings have grown by 2.9%, which increases the probability of rising inflation. Therefore, a rate hike in the US in December is now expected by investors with a probability of 90%.

    The resistance line of the trend is under the threat of moving up due to all of the geopolitical risks, but at the moment the most optimal course would be the short deals in the short-term, which is also confirmed by the MACD oscillator.

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  26. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian


    AUD/USD Technical Analysis


    Today during the Australian session there were a number of indicators for Australia released, which were generally higher than projected.

    At the moment the pair is trading in the corridor between Fibo levels held on the daily chart. We observe that the price breaks through the "body" of the candle into our levels and often returns to the previous range.

    If we view our graph from the point of view of wave analysis, then we can observe the completion of the medium-term downward movement and the formation of the second upward wave.

    This is why today's trading recommendation is to look for points to enter long positions in the area of the mark of 0.7810 with the expectation of the formation of an upward wave.

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  27. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    Recent Developments with Oil



    The latest events in the US, OPEC, and China have helped stabilize the oil market, but where is it really going?

    To anyone interested in the financial markets it is hardly a secret that crude oil has been really far away from its usual glamour over the past few years. What started off as competition between the OPEC states (chiefly led by Saudi Arabia) and the United States exacerbated and led to a dramatically oversupplied oil market, bringing prices down to record lows. Now, more than two years later, is oil finally recovering?

    First off, if we look to the United States, generally speaking, they have consistently increased their oil extraction activities. Thanks to shale oil, the US is able to extract oil in a cost-effective manner that allows them to make a profit even at low oil prices. This is why throughout the oil crisis the United States remained undeterred and kept up with their schedule as if nothing out of the ordinary is going on. Towards the end of this summer, however, the US was forced to put some of its activities on hold due to a series of natural disasters along its coastlines, which caused huge damages and disrupted the work of oil extraction facilities. This allowed the markets to ease off somewhat, but there was no reason to assume that the United States would decrease their oil production anytime soon.

    On the other hand, last year OPEC member states managed to agree to start cutting their oil production in order to fight the oversupply on the market. With an unbelievably committed compliance with the agreement of up to 90% OPEC managed to decrease their exports and gradually bring oil prices up past the psychological level of $50 per barrel. They were also helped by non-OPEC countries like Russia who willingly joined the reduction effort in order to stabilize the oil market. Investors perked up recently amid news both from OPEC and Russia that everyone is willing to continue with this approach into 2018 in an attempt to restore the market to how it used to be.

    Nevertheless, yesterday data on the US oil reserves was released which showed a decline in the number of barrels available. This allowed oil prices to climb up to $51.01 (WTI) and $56.58 (Brent).

    In addition, China entered into play again. At the beginning of the oil crisis, China (the biggest oil importer in the world) was quite important – due to its slowing economic growth, it simply didn’t demand as much oil as before, so it left the market oversupplied. Now China has started buying oil again, though according to reports, it is not consumer demand, but rather to fill its security reserves. Still, this helped ease the market further.

    Another important factor for the oil market right now is the Iran deal. It has to be renewed every 90 days and it’s widely expected that Donald Trump would not renew it this week. If he does not renew it, US Congress has two more months to decide on sanctions for Iran, which could block some of the oil supply coming from there. If this happens, supply will decrease and oil prices will move up.

    According to the International Energy Agency, 2018 would generally shape to be a balanced year for oil. They report steady increases in demand, which would lead to a healthier oil market, provided the current production levels are met. However, this means that OPEC would need to extend its agreement on production cuts past March 2018, when it is set to expire. If a new agreement is reached and we do not see massive natural disasters, then next year we could finally see the oil market recover.
     
  28. SuperForex

    SuperForex Jackobian

    USD/SEK: Review & Forecast



    There is no news from Sweden, so the USD/SEK rate is depending on the situation in the USA. Investors are focused on news about choosing a new FED Head.

    Over the last month the situation for the USD/SEK currency pair has not changed. The rates continue in the frames of a downward trend with signs of consolidation. The range of the consolidation phase at the moment is 8.0249-8.1862 SEK.

    This week the rates were under the influence of the situation in the United States. The U.S. dollar strengthened against most currencies amid the unstable political situation in the EU. Investors are focusing on the appointment of a new head of the Federal Reserve. This week it was reported that Donald Trump would like to see a supporter of tight monetary policy fill the position of Fed Head. On Monday he met with one of the candidates for the post, John Taylor, who was in favor of active interest rate increase and the achievement of a level three times the current one. Donald Trump was pleased with the meeting, but at the moment it is unknown who will finally be chosen in February 2018. Investors are expecting Trump's decision by November 3.

    In any case, the current head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, also expressed there is a high probability of a rate hike despite the low inflation indicator. She said that the U.S. economy is currently strong enough and the good situation on the labour market allows for an increase in the interest rate in the near future.

    The Stochastics oscillator signals reaching the overbought zone and the probability of a price correction in the near future, which allows us to make a profit with short deals. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the USD has the potential for further strengthening in the medium term perspectives. Therefore, pay attention to the point of entry 8.1862 SEK, which may indicate not only the completion of the consolidation phase, but also the trend reversal in favor of USD. On the other hand, the achievement of the level 8.0249 SEK confirms the continuation of the current downtrend.

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